Redistricting pushes vulnerable House Democrats to the right in Florida

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The political center is looking less lonely for Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) these days as two other Florida Democrats, each running in redrawn districts this fall, search for ways to break with their party.

Reps. Darren Soto (D-FL) and Kathy Castor (D-FL) have sided with Republicans more than the average Democrat this Congress, often on high-profile votes that pose a liability in the midterm elections.

The most visible break with Democratic leadership came earlier this month, when Soto and Castor were among the eight House Democrats to vote for a GOP resolution that simultaneously denounced socialism while expressing support for the SAVE America Act. 

In recent weeks, Soto and Castor have also bucked their party on Republican-led bills covering insider trading, fraud, and veteran care. Notably, Castor was one of six House Democrats to support a GOP-led government funding bill in July. A similar bill that passed the Senate last week attracted wider party support.

The votes come as Democrats attempt to overcome a nationwide redistricting war that could net Republicans as many as nine or 10 new seats, including four in Florida. Democrats are still favored to retake the House in November, but their path to the majority depends on them successfully capitalizing on President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.

Several of the Democrats whose districts have been redrawn by Republicans are already known to voters as mavericks, including Moskowitz in Florida, Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas, and Don Davis in North Carolina.

Moskowitz, in particular, made his name as an outspoken critic of the Left and defeated a socialist challenger in his August primary.

Castor and Soto, meanwhile, lack the same reputation and are often regarded as traditional rank-and-file Democrats. (Soto is typically rated as more ideologically to the right of Castor, according to GovTrack.)

For that reason, Republicans are hoping to define them as “rubber-stamps” for Democratic leadership. Maureen O’Toole, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Campaign Committee, pointed to several votes cast by Castor and Soto, including their opposition to last year’s GOP tax bill and legislation that would have criminalized transgender surgeries for minors.

“Soto and Castor are as radical as the day is long,” O’Toole wrote in a statement. “Try as they might, they cannot outrun their disastrous records.”

Neither is claiming to be a conservative Democrat in the mold of Cuellar, a fixture of South Texas politics whose district was redrawn to be slightly more Trump-friendly. Castor and Soto also haven’t picked public fights with members of their own party, as Moskowitz has with controversial Twitch streamer Hasan Piker on Israel.

But they have pitched themselves to voters as Democrats who are willing to work across the aisle to address pervasive “corruption” in Washington and lower costs.

Castor’s campaign released an ad last week highlighting that she “worked with Republicans to punish fraudsters” and in a statement reiterated her support for a GOP bill to ban insider trading by members of Congress.

“Kathy Castor is laser focused on improving the lives of her constituents,” said a Castor campaign spokesperson. “Whether it’s new housing for service members and their families at MacDill Air Force Base, breaking with Democrats to ban Congressional stock trading, or standing up to Republicans to lower the cost of healthcare, Kathy is committed to working with anyone to get things done for her neighbors.”

The Soto campaign emphasizes that he’s a longtime member of the Problem Solvers Caucus and said his opposition to socialism is also not new. Soto and 85 other House Democrats supported a narrower resolution denouncing socialism last year.

“I’ve consistently opposed socialism, supported a congressional stock trading ban, and have led multiple bipartisan bills to advance agriculture and disaster relief efforts in Florida,” Soto said in a statement provided by his campaign. “I’m in Congress to work on behalf of my constituents and get things done.”

It remains to be seen whether that note of bipartisanship will be enough to overcome new district lines that have transformed the partisan makeup of their seats. 

Soto’s district in Central Florida swung 22 points after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) signed new maps in May, refashioning it from a battleground Vice President Kamala Harris won by 3.5 points in 2024 to one Trump carried by 18 points. As a result, nonpartisan election forecasters consider his seat a likely Republican pickup.

The shift is almost as dramatic for Castor, a 20-year incumbent. Trump won her Tampa-area district by 10 points in 2024, compared to an 8-point win for Harris before redistricting. But she and Moskowitz stand a better chance of surviving redistricting due to the composition of voters, and their races are rated toss-ups.

The outcome will depend on whether a blue wave arrives for Democrats on election night. Polls show a favorable political climate for them as the party out of power. The war in Iran has also stoked inflation due to rising energy prices.

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In California, one of the only blue states where Democrats successfully pursued redistricting, Republicans are similarly distancing themselves from their party brand. Rep. Kevin Kiley, now running in a Democratic-leaning district, became an independent in March and has repeatedly bucked Republican leadership.

Earlier this month, he rejected a GOP-authored constitutional amendment that would have frozen the number of Supreme Court justices at nine.

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