ARE MIDTERM RESULTS ALREADY BAKED IN THE CAKE? President Donald Trump will gather Republicans in a rare midterm convention starting Wednesday in Dallas. It’s a chance, GOP organizers hope, to fire up voters and reset a campaign in which Republicans appear to be trailing in several key races.
It’s reasonable that Republicans would want to do that. But what if the result of the midterm elections is already pretty much a done deal? If, 55 days before Election Day, the outcome is already baked in the cake and there’s not much that can be done to change things? And what if that is especially true when Trump wants to make the election about his performance as president, as he apparently does?
“Voter views on Trump — 40 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable — are baked. NOTHING will change that by November,” said one knowledgeable and experienced Republican in a recent text exchange. “Voters’ negative views on the economy and the war in Iran are fully baked. Nothing will change that before election day. Those are certainties.”
On the other hand, the Republican continued, there remains “room to maneuver” on topics that are not yet decided. One of those involves the voters’ impressions of some of the hot personalities in the races, like James Talarico, Abdul el Sayed, Ken Paxton, and others. Do they actually like one candidate more than his opponent? Or, if they dislike both — which is a pretty common situation — which do they dislike the least? There is still time for both parties to make progress or fall behind on that question.
And then there is the always vexing question of which voters will actually bother to show up. That’s one of the things the Republican convention is designed to move the needle on. Maybe it will succeed.
But fundamentally change the race? The reality is, some of the major factors are already set and are highly unlikely to change in the next 55 days. (It’s always important to say that is barring some enormous, world-changing event, like COVID-19 or 9/11, that no one can predict.)
In any event, there is a lot of research suggesting that many voters make their decisions early in a campaign. To the degree that some of the issues voters have unchangeable opinions on — Trump, the economy, and the war — to the degree that those factors play a decisive role in the voting, then the result might indeed be baked in the cake.
Especially issues that involve the president. On Aug. 21, when he traveled to South Carolina to campaign for Sen. Darline Graham, Trump gave his thoughts on the role he should play in the voters’ midterm decisions. “The problem that we have is, they say that Trump does great when he’s on the ballot, but when he’s not on the ballot, his people don’t come, and they don’t vote for senators, congressmen, and other Republicans,” Trump said. “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important.”
Trump’s intention seemed clear; he was trying to spark higher, presidential-level turnout in a lower-turnout midterm election. But the effect of Trump’s words was also clear; he was putting himself in the middle of the midterms. And given his job approval ratings, that is, to say the least, a risky strategy. Trump’s approval currently stands at 39.7%, with 57% disapproval, in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Looking at the most recent dozen polls in the average, which include pollsters whose results have been both more and less favorable to Trump, the president has been underwater in every single one. In the best poll for Trump, he was six points underwater; in the worst, he was 30 points underwater. In this term, Trump has been underwater since early March 2025, just weeks into his presidency.
No wonder the Republican veteran sees the Trump factor as absolutely unchangeable. The same is true, by the way, of Trump’s job approval specifically on the issue of the economy and on the war — both topics on which Trump is underwater.
The convention in Dallas is intended to refocus voters on Trump’s accomplishments, like his extraordinary success in stopping the Biden-era incursion of illegal border crossers. It’s also intended to focus on the Democrats’ weaknesses, most specifically the party’s deeply worrisome lurch into socialism. Both are compelling reasons to vote for a Republican or against a Democrat. But there are a lot of voters out there — about 107 million Americans voted in the 2022 midterm elections — and it could be that an overwhelming number of them have already made up their minds.