Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass, a Washington think tank, describes himself as a right-of-center conservative. In reality, his economic views align far more closely with those of the far left.
In a Substack essay last week, Cass reiterates his support for President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, arguing that protectionism will spark a domestic manufacturing renaissance. He envisions a return to the post-World War II era, when a single factory wage could comfortably support a stay-at-home parent and a family. It sounds good on paper.
The problem?
Cass overlooks that mid-20th-century prosperity was an anomaly born of World War II. Europe and Japan lay in ruins, leaving the United States as the world’s sole industrial powerhouse. From 1945 through the mid-1960s, American titans such as General Electric, General Motors, and Caterpillar dominated global markets, commanding high prices and distributing generous wages. That era cannot be recreated by policy.
Cass also mischaracterizes recent labor trends, mistaking a cyclical blip driven by data center construction for a lasting structural rebound. In reality, domestic manufacturing employment has trended downward for half a century, and automation will accelerate that trajectory. Rather than adding assembly line jobs, manufacturers are replacing labor with robotics.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently projected a tenfold increase in robotic demand over the coming years. Much like the mechanization of agriculture a century ago, this wave of creative destruction will shift workers into new, higher-value service roles supporting the AI complex. Despite warnings from critics such as Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu, technological adoption historically drives net job creation, a trend the Economist recently corroborated. Cass’s essay contains four additional policy mistakes.
Unions: Cas champions labor unions, ignoring standard economic consensus that excessive collective bargaining power dampens aggregate employment while fueling wage-price inflation.
Trade and currency: Cass anticipates that the G20 will coordinate to counter Chinese mercantilism and orchestrate a currency revaluation, appreciating the Yuan against the U.S. dollar, to shrink the U.S. trade deficit. In reality, Beijing would leverage its control over critical supply chains to block any harmful accord. Furthermore, America’s trade deficit is primarily driven by massive federal fiscal deficits, not currency imbalances.
Corporate investment: Cass understates domestic business dynamism. U.S. firms are investing heavily at home, with AI capital expenditures driving up to half of recent economic growth.
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Immigration: Cass discounts how high-skilled immigration fuels productivity, entrepreneurship, and broad household gains.
Top line? Cass may be an articulate champion of industrial policy and state intervention, but his platform is rooted in economic nationalism and market intervention, not conservative principles.
The writer owns shares in Nvidia.
James Rogan is a former U.S. diplomat who later worked in law and finance for over 30 years. He writes a subscription-based daily note on markets, economics, politics, and social issues. His email is [email protected].