Polls show Republicans struggling this midterm cycle to hold onto President Donald Trump’s historic gains with Latino voters, yet the party’s most prominent Hispanic surrogate is sitting on the sidelines.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a close Trump ally and potential 2028 presidential contender, has largely avoided campaigning for GOP candidates in 2026 and is not expected to appear at this week’s Republican National Committee midterm convention. Rubio’s absence stands out as Republicans confront signs that the coalition Trump assembled in 2024 may be fraying, particularly among Latino voters who helped power his return to the White House.
Trump carried 46% of Latino voters in the 2024 general election, a high point for a modern Republican president. Republican operatives credit Trump’s focus on combating inflation and improving the economy as helping drive the gains. Nearly two years later, however, polling indicates these voters might be moving away from the president and the GOP.
A poll published this spring by the progressive group UnidosUS found that 67% of Latino voters in Texas disapproved of the president’s job in office, including 20% who voted for him in 2025. Equis Research also published a spring poll that found that 10% of Texas Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 would not vote for a Republican congressional candidate in 2026.
And a Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision made public on Tuesday found that Democrats had opened up a 23-point lead over Republicans with Latino voters in 17 battleground House districts.
Latino voters could play an outsized role in determining control of the House. A dozen of the 37 districts rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report are at least 20% Hispanic, including three Toss Up seats held by Republican incumbents. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), Gabe Evans (R-CO), and David Valadao (R-CA) are all defending districts with sizable Hispanic populations that Trump carried in 2024.
That makes Rubio’s absence from the trail particularly notable. The Florida Republican remains one of the GOP’s most recognizable Latino figures.
Adam Goodman, a veteran Republican strategist based in Florida, told the Washington Examiner that Rubio is the GOP’s “secret weapon” for reaching reassuring Hispanic voters to vote Republican and suggested that his absence from the campaign trail is a loss for the party.
“Marco is arguably the most ready to serve, meaning take a national message on behalf of the president, and somewhere downstream perhaps on behalf of himself, that people will rally around,” he explained. “He’s incredibly articulate. It’s one thing to have a message — it’s another to be able to deliver it powerfully. He’s one of the best. He’s always well-reasoned. He’s always compelling. His experience always is kind of the reinforcement of credibility when he goes out [on] the trail.”
Goodman conceded that economic uncertainty is peeling off voters, including Latinos, from the Trump coalition, but argued that just because they might not vote Republican, it isn’t guaranteed that those voters will swing for Democrats.
“It’s really hard to measure subgroups right now. Obviously, the economy and other concerns have been fairly front and center for the last six months, and so I think there’s a lot of uncertainty in the electorate,” he continued. “But in terms of the square off between a choice between capitalism and some version of progressive socialism, the Latino vote is a fairly difficult vote, I think, for Democrats to really bring in with any kind of certainty. Their message doesn’t really fit the demographic.”
There are also institutional obstacles to putting Rubio on the campaign trail.
A senior Republican official told the Washington Examiner that the secretary of state and other national security-focused officials face separate ethics requirements that make it “much harder” to organize campaign travel compared to other members of the Cabinet. But that hasn’t stopped War Secretary Pete Hegseth from hitting the trail for House candidates in Kentucky and Iowa this year.
A spokesperson for the State Department told the Washington Examiner in a statement that it is a “long-standing” policy to “prohibit Senate-confirmed Presidential appointees from attending partisan conventions.”
“This is to avoid any appearance of partisanship in the conduct of foreign relations and in recognition of the need for the U.S. Government to speak with one voice on foreign policy matters,” the statement reads.
But five Florida Republican operatives, including three who specialize in Hispanic outreach, told the Washington Examiner that Rubio’s absence from the campaign trail goes beyond ethics restrictions.
They described it as a conscious decision to insulate the secretary of state from a difficult political environment while preserving his standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential campaign.
One operative, a close ally of Trump himself, said that Rubio is guarding against a potential “major loss in November” if Democrats take over one or both of the congressional majorities. That person noted that parties in power typically lose in the midterms and that Vice President JD Vance, another 2028 contender, is serving as the RNC’s finance chair this cycle.
“Let the other people take the hits, and then [Rubio] could argue, this really was a shitstorm, and then he becomes the only guy that could run in ‘28,” the official explained. “I think, for Marco, every step is about ‘28. Do I run? Do I not run? He’s still a very popular guy, one of the most famous guys in the administration. Maybe this is going to be a bloodbath, so why would he want to get involved?”
The operative acknowledged Rubio’s focus on foreign policy crises in Venezuela and Iran but argued those issues may have less immediate resonance with voters worried about the cost of living.
“His main focus right now is on some oil deal in Venezuela and everything with Iran,” the person said. “But for voters, like what the f*** does that do for me? You can do this great oil deal, but guess what — when I’m going to the pump, my f***ing gas is still expensive.”
A former GOP leadership aide now based in Miami similarly described Rubio as perhaps the party’s strongest surrogate outside Trump himself. But the aide said some Florida Republicans have deliberately avoided asking him to campaign, believing there is little reason to associate him with races that could end badly for the party.
“There’s a lot of people who are aware that it’s just not the best year for Republicans,” that person stated. “So let’s keep our boy out of this. He’s doing such a good job. He’s very popular. Why get him involved in these races that might not go well? Why tie him so much to the topic of the economy, because these campaigns have to talk about the economy and cost of living, when he literally has no purview over economic policy?”
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A second South Florida GOP operative similarly told the Washington Examiner that if Rubio wants any shot of running a successful campaign in 2028, he “can’t afford to take the hits” on the economy this cycle.
“There is a lot of enthusiasm in Miami, probably all of Florida, really, around Rubio. He’s very popular here, and I think a lot of people here in this area are cool with him kind of just staying in his lane and not having to weld himself to things that are kind of negative right now for Republicans,” the operative added. “There’s no one saying, ‘Oh, it’s suspect that he’s not out there,’ especially when you think about how the Florida races just won’t be as competitive as in other states.”