Republicans are getting pretty fed up with their Senate nominee in Texas, state attorney general Ken Paxton.
The scandal-tainted and once-impeached Paxton is a flawed candidate in all kinds of ways that were predictable and, in fact, widely predicted.
Establishment Republicans in both Texas and Washington, D.C., never wanted Paxton to be the nominee in the first place and would have mixed emotions at most if he loses in November. If Paxton needs outside financial support — he has not been the most prolific fundraiser while his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is flush with cash — they would prefer it come from President Donald Trump’s war chest.
Trump, after all, endorsed Paxton in the runoff while the rest of the party leadership wanted to stick with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
“So, time is running out,” Republican strategist Karl Rove, a longtime adviser to former President George W. Bush, complained to Fox News Radio. “If the president wants to have Paxton win, he needs to be tossing a lot of money Paxton’s way so that ads can be run that depict Talarico as the far-left winger that he is. If not, Talarico is going to run the message of, ‘My opponent is the most corrupt politician in Texas history,’ all the way to the victory lane.”
Not the most rousing endorsement.
But it is worth noting that the Texas Republican ticket, from Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) on down, is collectively underperforming this year, albeit not as badly as Paxton. The likelihood is that this would have been a competitive Senate race even with a safer nominee than Paxton.
Cornyn would have had an easier time raising money. He is plugged in with the donors, and national Republicans would have been considerably more eager to help if he needed it. He also has less baggage, which would have forced Talarico to run a different kind of campaign against him, perhaps one focused on the senator’s incumbency and time in Washington, which would have been a tougher sell for a Democrat in Texas, even in an election cycle like this one.
But pre-primary polls didn’t show Cornyn running away with a hypothetical race against Talarico. He would have likely encountered some of the same problems as other Texas Republicans this year. And the runoff results suggest that Cornyn, who lost by 27.6 points, would have had a base enthusiasm problem if he had made it to the general election.
Other Republican Senate candidates are struggling, even in Trump-won states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina. But that actually makes Paxton’s problem worse: That means there are other Senate races where the national money could be spent, and some of these states have fewer or cheaper media markets than Texas.
Republicans are also still actively defending a Senate seat in Maine and eyeing potential pickup opportunities in Michigan, New Hampshire, and possibly even Minnesota.
There probably is some amount of money that could drag Paxton, who is trailing by just 2.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, across the finish line. But it is not clear at what cost — and whether that cost would be one that Trump or other GOP bigwigs are willing to pay.
Texas is an expensive state with some 20 media markets. Republicans could potentially get more bang for their buck elsewhere. Paxton isn’t winning any popularity contests with Republican leaders.
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Yet it would be difficult for Democrats to win the Senate if Republicans hold Texas. Talarico is an awfully liberal candidate for the state, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. That’s before Talarico was born.
If Democrats score the upset here, as they have threatened but ultimately failed to do in the last two races against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), it’s going to get ugly in Texas.