Two stories that broke this week are integral to American beef. First, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day tariff reduction, with subsidies, for imported ground beef to lower prices for American families. Second, the federal government announced it would massively reduce allocations to states of Colorado River water over the next decade to try to stem the water supply crisis in that basin.
Four years ago, I could go to Stacey’s Old Faithful Bar just outside Bozeman and order a juicy ribeye steak for $24 or a half-pound burger and fries for $12. Today, the same items will set you back $46 and $24, respectively. Hamburger in grocery stores now sells for around $8 a pound — more than steaks per pound just a few years ago.
American families for whom ground beef is a staple for backyard barbecues, sloppy joes, chili, and other regular home-cooked recipes are struggling at the checkout counter.
The biggest culprit causing the rise of beef prices is basic supply and demand. Western states experienced a prolonged drought two years ago. Pastures didn’t green up, and it was impossible to raise hay. Ranchers could not feed their cattle and liquidated their herds. That meant when rains returned, there simply wasn’t sufficient breed stock to replenish American beef supplies.
It is not as easy as waiting a year or two because ranchers were forced to sell off “mom” cows, too. They have to gradually build up the number of cows over a number of years. Most cows will give birth to just one calf a year. Ranchers still need to sell some of their annual production to generate cash flow, so growth of herds is not measured in geometric progression.
Trump is, truly, caught between a rock and a hard place. Ranchers have just begun to make up for years of low beef prices. My (Montana’s) entire Congressional delegation came out, respectively, opposed to the 90-day window for cheap foreign beef imports, as it will introduce price pressure on our state’s agricultural industry just as they were beginning to recover. The President recognizes there is an election less than three months away, and voters are grouching about grocery prices. One of the things I like about Trump is that he never shies away from making tough decisions. One of the things I like about my senators and representatives is that they are fiercely loyal to their fellow Montanans and the Montana way of life.
The Colorado River is another can of worms. For years, the states that depend upon the river to supply domestic and irrigation water have been unable to divvy up dwindling water supplies that appear to decrease with each year. The federal government is taking steps to force changes. The big question will be the decisions each state makes in how they use the water. Humans will come first. Golf courses and manicured lawns last. But where will farmers and ranchers fall on the continuum? Will there be enough water after human needs to even attempt to continue farming and ranching?
Here in Montana, where I live, water is just as critical. The International Joint Commission (IJC), an organization where I previously served as a commissioner, has two major files coming to a head that will have enormous impact on farmers, ranchers, and communities on both sides of the US-Canada boundary for decades to come. One is the potential re-appropriation of water in the St. Mary-Milk Rivers system. That system provides irrigation for tens of thousands of acres from Glacier National Park to North Dakota along the Montana and Alberta border. The last time the IJC made decisions on allocation of water in this system was in the 1930’s. That means any changes in how water is shared between the two countries will have impacts for multiple generations of Montanans and Albertans, especially those in the agriculture industry.
The other file is the Elk-Kootenai River, which flows south from British Columbia’s resource-rich Elk Valley into Lincoln County, Montana, then into Idaho and back into British Columbia, where it joins the Columbia River. At issue is too high concentrations of selenium in the river. Can this be sprayed on hayfields and pastures, long term, without impacting the health of the animals that eat the forage (cattle) or soil health?
American agriculture, in the West, is experiencing a water policy pincer maneuver being driven by natural and man-made forces. Critical decisions on shared water between the US and Canada and the ever-evaporating Colorado River are going to have an outsized impact on beef growers and consumer prices in coming years.
TRUMP WANTS TO KILL THE ROADLESS RULE: TREES AREN’T WORTH MORE THAN LIVES
Without adequate clean water, we can’t irrigate pastures or grow hay. Without pastures and hay, we can’t raise livestock. Water is a key input and factor in the American beef industry.
Water policy is beef policy.
Robert C. Sisson is President Emeritus of ConservAmerica and Former Commissioner of International Joint Commission.