Election forecaster Inside Elections shifted the New Hampshire Senate race from “tilts Democrat” to a “toss-up” rating on Wednesday, following the momentum behind GOP candidate and former Sen. John Sununu in his bid to reclaim his seat.
The rating shift comes just days before New Hampshire’s Senate primary on Tuesday, Sept. 8, in which Sununu is expected to win against the other GOP candidate, former ambassador to New Zealand, Scott Brown. On the Democratic side of the ballot, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is largely expected to advance to the general election in his matchup against socialist Karishma Manzur.
The Democratic Senate primary between Pappas and Manzur, however, has appeared to tighten in recent polling, while Sununu has increased his double-digit margins against Brown in recent surveys. Sununu’s momentum is evident in general election polling, with him leading Pappas by 2 percentage points in the most recent University of New Hampshire survey on the race.
Sununu was one of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-SD) prized recruits of the 2026 election cycle, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee embracing Sununu as a candidate who can win independents in the New England state. The former New Hampshire senator served in the upper chamber from 2003 to 2009, until he was ousted by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2008. After Shaheen announced her retirement in March 2025, Sununu announced his comeback bid in October 2025.
“Thanks to Leader John Thune and Senate Republican leadership’s successful recruitment of John E. Sununu, New Hampshire is a prime pick-up opportunity as Republicans work to protect and expand the majority. Senate Leadership Fund is proud to support Sununu and is committed to flipping New Hampshire in November,” Senate Leadership Fund Communications Director Chris Gustafson said in a statement on the Inside Elections shift.
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Despite Inside Elections shifting the race to a toss-up, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still categorize the race as “leans Democrat.”
Then-Vice President Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8 percentage points in 2024, and the state currently has an all-Democratic Senate delegation with Shaheen and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH).