The federal government’s estimate of the total number of payroll jobs is likely to be revised down by 79,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.
The update, a preliminary notice of forthcoming revisions to the jobs numbers, means that the labor market has been weaker than thought. That is a blow to President Donald Trump, whose economic approval ratings have plummeted in recent months thanks to high inflation, which has been accompanied by modest job growth numbers.
The number of private-sector jobs will be revised down by 178,000, according to the agency.
Friday’s release from the bureau is a preview of the annual “benchmark” revision it makes to its estimate of payroll jobs, which will be released in February. The benchmark revision is different from revisions to past months’ job numbers, which are regularly included in the monthly jobs reports.
Instead, it is part of an annual process for adjusting the estimates of payroll jobs, which are based on the monthly survey of establishments. The BLS rebenchmarks those numbers against a comprehensive count of jobs from the BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a quarterly assessment of employment and wages reported by employers that covers more than 95% of U.S. jobs.
Recent years have seen large revisions due to two unusual factors.
One is a drop in response rates, driven partly by the pandemic.
The other is the distortions created by the influx of illegal immigrants during former President Joe Biden’s tenure. Illegal immigrant workers might be counted in the survey of establishments, but not in the QCEW.
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Last year, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a weak jobs report that showed major downward revisions, calling it “rigged.”
Trump appointee Brett Matsumoto took over at the bureau earlier this month.