As we celebrate America’s 250th birthday, our pride in successfully reaching this milestone must be tempered by the challenge we face: ensuring a strong, secure, and resilient nation for the next 250 years and more.
There is a clear, albeit difficult, path forward. First, revive, reconstitute, and reconfigure America’s manufacturing base. Second, within the confines of the U.S. sphere of influence (encompassing the homeland and the rest of the Americas), assemble and build critical supply chains with respect to the technology, energy, and food sectors that are vital to our economic and military security. Third, put in place a pragmatic fiscal framework that defuses the huge, ticking federal deficit bomb while encouraging private sector-driven, sustainable economic growth.
The foundation of U.S. military power is the size of America’s manufacturing base. Although the United States has the world’s largest economy, with GDP of $30.4 trillion as of 2025, the American manufacturing sector was only $2.9 trillion or about 9.5% of GDP. In sharp contrast, the size of China’s manufacturing sector was $4.8 trillion or about 25% of GDP of $19.5 trillion. Simply put, although the size of the U.S. economy was about 60% larger than China’s, the American manufacturing sector was only about 60% the size of China’s manufacturing sector.
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It is unlikely that the United States will be able to close the manufacturing gap with China for the foreseeable future.
According to the International Monetary Fund projections prepared in July 2026, the real rate of growth of the U.S. economy is expected to be 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. For the comparable periods, China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.6% and 4.1%.
Assuming the US will grow at a real rate of 2.5% per annum (which is higher than the 1.8% annual real growth rate assumed by the Congressional Budget Office), then at the end of a decade, the size of the economy would be about $38.9 trillion. If the share of manufacturing increased to 15% of GDP by the end of a decade, the size of the U.S. manufacturing sector would amount to $5.8 trillion.
Even if the Chinese economy grew at only 2.5% per annum (the same rate as the U.S. and significantly lower than IMF projections), and assuming there is no change in the share of the manufacturing sector’s share of the country’s economy, at the end of ten years the size of China’s manufacturing sector would be $6.3 trillion, which still would be larger than America’s manufacturing sector at that time.
So, the American manufacturing sector will have to shift its focus from consumer goods to military and dual-use products. Other countries within America’s sphere of influence would be key U.S. trade partners facilitating this transition, particularly for consumer goods.
Decoupling from the ecosystems of adversaries such as China and Russia is not a choice but an existential necessity.
Manufacturing represents the end of the supply chain, but the intermediate and beginning stages are equally important for the integrity and security of the supply chain. After all, the supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link.
Given the reality of a smaller American manufacturing base relative to China, the United States will have to have comparatively higher productivity driven by Artificial Intelligence and other technologies in order to produce more and better-quality military and dual-use goods with the same resources.
The backbone of AI-driven productivity is the data centers ecosystem: land, water, and electric power. The United States has sufficient land and water and has the potential to significantly turbocharge its electric power-generating capacity. The key is to substantially expand the share of renewable nuclear fuel in the energy mix to support the huge demand for electric power that an AI-driven productivity revolution requires.
The NIMBY backlash against data centers and nuclear power is a misguided, self-imposed constraint that will have to be addressed and overcome via the democratic political process, not by fiat. The national security dimensions of the AI revolution have yet to be seriously considered.
The rest of the Americas have the potential to supply the United States with key basic natural resources, critical minerals, fossil fuels, and agricultural products required to safeguard U.S. military and economic security.
Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile collectively have identified lithium reserves of about 64 million tons or about 40% of world identified reserves. Lithium is the key ingredient for rechargeable batteries that power electric vehicles – a sector dominated by China.
Chile, Peru, and Mexico collectively have proved copper reserves of about 318 million tons or about 33% of world proved reserves. Copper is a basic building block of industry, including the electric power, transportation, communication, and construction sectors.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proved oil reserves of about 303.8 billion barrels. Canada has proved oil reserves of 170.3 billion barrels. Collectively, the two countries account for about 27% of world oil reserves.
Canada has proved potash reserves of about 1.1 billion tons or about 20% of world proved reserves. Potash is the main ingredient for fertilizers and critical for food security.
The quintet of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, and Mexico is an agricultural combine that guarantees food security within the U.S. sphere of influence and beyond.
Of course, to regenerate the U.S. manufacturing base and unlock the potential of the other countries of the Americas to ensure robust supply chains from exploration, to development, to refining and processing will require the mobilization of a massive amount of private sector investment.
The U.S. government cannot continue on its current trajectory to a fiscal meltdown that would destroy America’s capital markets, which have financed our nation’s economic growth. As of fiscal year-end 2025, the total federal debt of $37.6 trillion represented 124% of GDP of $30.4 trillion. According to projections prepared by the Congressional Budget Office, total federal debt held by the public will mushroom to 175% of GDP in 2056.
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It is within the power of Washington’s decision-makers to craft a pathway to fiscal resiliency. Instead of squandering the nation’s scarce resources to slay imaginary foreign dragons, it’s time to slay the real fiscal monster at home that is an imminent existential threat.
We cannot betray our Founding Fathers. On our 250th anniversary, the legacy we must bequeath to future generations is a strong, secure and resilient America.
Samir Tata is the founder and president of International Political Risk Analytics, an advisory firm based in Reston, Virginia, and author of the book Reflections on Grand Strategy: The Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century.