Albeit belatedly and at insufficient scale, European navies are increasingly seizing Russian tankers that are transporting arms and oil in breach of international sanctions. The United States has also seized at least one Russian tanker that attempted to escape the blockade of Venezuela.
These Russian vessels operate as “shadow tankers,” sailing under shell companies and the flags of third countries. Their seizure represents a proportionate reaction to Russia’s conduct of the bloodiest, largest land war in Europe since 1945.
Of course, President Vladimir Putin isn’t happy about the overdue enforcement of sanctions. His economy is suffering badly under sanctions and the burdens of his struggling war effort. Putin needs the revenue from the cargo his ships are carrying. And Putin is gambling that if he escalates against the West, he’ll be able to force the Europeans into backing down. So, on Wednesday, Putin used a visit to his Pacific Fleet to threaten a direct response to European naval activity.
The former KGB officer began by lambasting Japan for its sanctions on Moscow, warning that Russia would boost its military deterrence of Tokyo. This hostile rhetoric primarily reflects Putin’s interest in earning China’s favor. Beijing is infuriated by Japan’s more robust defensive posture under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Next, however, Putin warned that Russia would consider seizing European cargo vessels “where we ourselves consider necessary and expedient. Anywhere, including in the area of responsibility of the Pacific Fleet.” Pacific Fleet commander Admiral Viktor Liina added, “We know the routes, what they are carrying and whose ships they are.” A former ballistic missile submarine commander, Liina is regarded as a capable, aggressive commander.
Putin’s rhetoric seeks to provoke fear but cannot be brushed aside as a bluff. And the U.S. and its allies shouldn’t bend the knee.
Russian shadow tankers are being seized because they are enabling a wholly immoral war that has devastated Ukraine and destabilized international security. If Russia ended this war, the seizures would end. In contrast, any Russian attempt to seize a NATO state vessel would demand anticipatory and reactive NATO intervention. The U.S., European NATO states and Japan should thus make clear that they will defend any allied vessels that come under attack.
While Putin’s threat is yet another general quarters alarm for European governments to urgently invest in their navies, a clear warning will likely restrain Russia. After all, Putin and Liina know that their forces could not project power into the Oceans without jeopardizing the defense of Russian ballistic missile submarines and risking devastating at-sea defeat. Putin also knows that Xi Jinping wants the Russian navy ready to distract the U.S. and its allies when he eventually decides to seize Taiwan.
The importance of forceful deterrence extends beyond the Pacific. Putin isn’t making these threats in a vacuum. Instead, as was predicted, these threats reflect his wider escalation at home and abroad. Short of air defense weapons, Ukraine is coming under escalating missile attacks from both Russia and North Korea. But Russia’s once semi-covert sabotage campaign against the West is increasingly bursting forth from the shadows.
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Last week, Russia’s GRU military intelligence service attempted to use an explosives-laden drone to destroy a Ukrainian aircraft at a major airport in Germany. Assassination threats against targets in Europe are also ramping up. And fearing growing public dissatisfaction with his Ukraine quagmire, Putin this week banned Russia’s only anti-war political party from standing in September parliamentary elections.
NATO and Japan need to stand firm. The Russian leader is ruthless but also smart and sane. Recognizing joined and, if necessary, practiced resistance in the path of his bullying, he will back down.