Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed that oil leaving the Persian Gulf region has hit above pre-war levels despite the conflict with Iran, and that crude oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz alone is nearly 9 million barrels per day.
The figures, if accurate, would signal that the United States has succeeded in facilitating the trade of oil through the crucial waterway without striking another peace deal with Iran, and that Iran is losing leverage in any negotiations. But the estimates contradict those of major tanker traffic trackers and energy analysts.
Wright made the claim Tuesday afternoon, with oil prices up nearly $10 compared to the lows the week prior, when hopes were higher for another ceasefire agreement.
“Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day,” Wright posted on X. “When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.”
Wright claimed that, on Sunday alone, more than 20 million barrels of oil were exported from the Persian Gulf region, above the typical pre-war daily oil shipments that passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the war, about 20% of global oil demand transited the strait daily, roughly equivalent to 20 million barrels per day.
The Trump administration has repeatedly said that it has been able to facilitate the flow of oil through the strait despite the threat from Iranian forces. It has been an apparent effort to calm global markets and keep prices from surging above $100 a barrel, thereby increasing the prices of petroleum goods such as gasoline.
Over the weekend, a U.S. official told Axios that around 8 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every night via the southern route, near the territorial waters of Oman.
It was not clear what data Wright was using. Outside energy analysts and tanker traffic trackers have put forward estimates of oil passing through the strait each day at millions of barrels below Wright’s assessment.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst for Iran and oil at the Eurasia Group, said on Tuesday that he’s seeing a seven-day average of around 5 million barrels.
Similarly, oil market researcher Rory Johnston estimated that the seven-day average as of last week peaked at around 7 million barrels.
“It’s *possible* that with dark transit revisions we’ll get higher, but 9 feels like a stretch,” Johnston wrote on X.
He also questioned Wright’s estimates of the amount of oil rerouted via upgraded pipelines, saying only about 4 million barrels per day are being pumped out by land, not 5 million to 7 million.
In a post to X, Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said it might be possible for 9 million barrels to be traveling out of the strait each day on average, but likely half of that would be via the northern route, which is controlled by Iran. Iran, notably, has said it would close its waters in the strait until the U.S. caves to its demands.
“Realistically though… no evidence supports 9Mbpd,” Erickson said.
He also questioned whether there are actually 8 million barrels per day traveling via the Omani route, as suggested over the weekend, calling it “utterly preposterous.”
“As of yet, I have not found a SINGLE analyst with DATA to support anything even close to 8Mbpd moving through the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani Route,” Erickson said in another post. “The more I dig into this, the more I believe it was a U.S. official that misspoke or conflated TOTAL [Strait of Hormuz] flows with Omani Route flows.”
The Department of Energy did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s inquiry for the data behind Wright’s estimates.
STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE HITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 1983
Wright’s estimates did not appear to put any downward pressure on oil prices on Tuesday, with domestic and international benchmarks sticking in the mid- to high-$80s.
Just after 1:30 p.m., Brent crude had risen 1.19% and was priced at $88.27 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate also increased 1.39% and was selling at $83.27 a barrel.