WHAT IF REPUBLICANS LOSE BOTH HOUSE AND SENATE? The odds are Republicans will lose control of the House in the coming midterm elections, for five reasons: 1) their current majority is so narrow that losing a literal handful of seats would cost them control; 2) they will be hurt by President Donald Trump’s low job approval rating, especially on his handling of the economy; 3) the so-called “generic ballot” poll shows voters would prefer a Democrat to represent them in the House; 4) the war in Iran/the Middle East will be a continuing source of uncertainty and tension for the GOP; and 5) precedent strongly suggests the party that controls the White House will lose a substantial number of House seats.
So what if Democrats win? Although there is some internal party debate on this question, there’s a real possibility that a new Democratic majority in the House would impeach Trump for a third time. And there’s no doubt in the world that Democrats would kill the president’s legislative agenda. As bad as that is, it’s a situation Trump could live with because 1) a third impeachment would have a been-there-done-that quality, and Trump would prevail again; and 2) beyond the SAVE America Act, which will not pass this year, Trump doesn’t really have a legislative agenda to kill.
Losing the Senate, on the other hand, would be damaging to Trump because he needs to have his nominees — for the courts and his administration — confirmed. A united Democratic majority in the Senate could stop all that cold, and probably would, given the state of today’s politics.
So, how much of a chance does Trump have of losing the Senate? The answer appears to be more of a chance than he had a few months ago.
Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, which means Democrats would have to win four currently Republican-held seats to win control. This time last year, that seemed a remote possibility. But now there are six Republican seats that Democrats have a non-zero chance of winning. And there are just two Democratic seats in significant jeopardy.
On the Republican side: North Carolina, the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, seems gone. That’s one pickup for the Democrats. Iowa, currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, and Ohio, held by appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted, could go either way. Maine and Alaska, where Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Dan Sullivan face serious challenges, could also end badly for the GOP. And Texas, the seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn, where some Republicans scoff at the weakness of Democratic challenger James Talarico, is in clear danger. Yes, Talarico is a terrible candidate, but so is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Trump-backed candidate who beat Cornyn in a GOP primary.
On the Democratic side: Michigan, the seat held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, is a real pickup opportunity for Republicans. New Hampshire, the seat held by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is in play but seems, for the moment, to be leaning toward staying Democratic. And that’s about it.
The possibility that Republicans could win Michigan, where Democrats are poised to nominate Abdul el Sayed, a Democratic Socialists of America-style progressive who could struggle in a general election, is pretty much the entire bright side for Republicans when it comes to pickups.
If the GOP does win Michigan, Democrats would then have to win five currently Republican seats to win control of the Senate. That would be hard, but doable. Go down the list: North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska. It is not at all outside the realm of possibility that Democrats could win all but one of them.
BYRON YORK: NINETY-FIVE DAYS AND COUNTING
It is important to say that this is how the situation looks right now, in early August, for voting that will take place in early November. Of course things will change in the next three months. Candidates currently in tight races could pull ahead or fall back. Mistakes could be made. The political landscape could shift. All sorts of things could happen.
But there is no reason for Republicans to feel confident that, after losing the House, they will still have the Senate. They could lose both. And then, President Trump and his party will be in for a couple of trying years.