After a year and a half of poor polls for the Democratic Party, the political gravity of the midterm elections is starting to set in. Republicans are losing ground, and it can primarily be chalked up to President Donald Trump’s lack of a handle on affordability.
After months of Democrats struggling in generic congressional ballot polling, driven by the party’s (still high) unpopularity, an Emerson poll shows the party leading Republicans 53%-42%. That 11-point lead is bigger than the lead Emerson gave Democrats one month before the 2018 “blue wave” elections, when the pollster had Democrats leading 50%-42%.
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This is starting to be reflected in Senate polling as well. An AARP poll put Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff up 52%-43% over his GOP challenger in Georgia. In a poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, Democrat James Talarico leads weak GOP candidate Ken Paxton 45%-40%. And, most recently, a Fox News poll showed Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper leading his GOP challenger 53%-44%.
Trump’s approval is hovering around the low 30s, and it’s easy to see what is driving his unpopularity. A Fox News poll put Trump’s approval on the economy at 33% (around where his approval rating is sitting), and an Economist/YouGov poll found that 47% of people think the economy is doing poorly, which is the highest number since 2023 under Joe Biden.
There are two factors driving this issue. The first is Trump’s war against Iran, which can at least be justified given that destroying a genocidal, anti-American, terrorist regime is something that falls under the job description. The biggest issue comes with the second factor: Trump’s tariffs. A July YouGov poll found that 72% of voters blame the tariffs for high prices, including 46% who say the tariffs have increased prices “a lot.”
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Trump was elected on the back of voters who were sick of “Bidenflation,” as Biden’s spending policies caused inflation to rocket coming out of the pandemic. Now, voters feel betrayed, as Trump’s broad tariffs have hamstrung the other economic benefits of his presidency. The dissatisfaction of voters is continuing to fester, surpassing the country’s distrust of the Democratic Party and building another blue wave that will turn Trump into a lame duck president.
All Trump had to do was shepherd the country out of the era of Bidenflation, and Republicans would have a more favorable landscape against the historically unpopular Democrats. Instead, Trump has botched the one thing voters have asked of him, by choice, and is willing to take his love of tariffs all the way to the political grave.