HARGEISA, Somalia — The desire to embrace cause-and-effect rationality to blame President Donald Trump for Iran’s ongoing aggression gets two things wrong.
First, the notion that the Islamic Republic would remain cautious and restrained had the United States and Israel not killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of Operation Epic Fury ignores Khamenei’s age: The ayatollah was 86 years old and faced multiple health crises. Trump’s critics ignore that the eventual succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei would likely have remained the same.
Second, Trump’s critics say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a direct result of U.S. action, but, before the Iran war erupted and Tehran began seeking to impose tolls to pass through the strait, the Islamic Republic and its proxy Houthi militia were already testing the strategy in the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. As Yemen’s southern forces pointed out during a visit to Aden a year ago, the Houthis maintained an invisible line in the Gulf of Aden. With the help of Iranian spy ships and Russian satellites, the Houthis would demand payment for any ship that traversed the line on its way to the Red Sea. If they failed to pay up, they could expect drones, missiles, or mines to interrupt their passage.
While American politicians, partisans, and the press prefer to play the blame game, the fact remains: Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis are threatening the Bab el-Mandeb and striking shipping in the Red Sea, and simply walking away will not resolve the problem. To make a World War II analogy, the United States lost the Battle of Bataan in 1942, and the Japanese then humiliated the U.S., killing over 10,000 more during the Bataan Death March. Fortunately, President Franklin D. Roosevelt did not face critics who sought to pillory him for challenging the Japanese. Returning home in 1942 may have cut losses, but it would have resulted in a far different world.
If Trump means to win the war against Iran and the Houthis to restore freedom of navigation through the world’s choke points, it is time to bring the State Department into line. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubles down on Hillary Clinton’s Somalia policy, there simply is no way to win the war without Somaliland.
Clinton doubled down on Somalia following the killing of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens in Libya, especially as critics began questioning whether she had any achievements to show. While Somaliland was briefly independent in 1960, it walked away from its union with the rest of Somalia in 1991. While Somalia descended into chaos and warlordism, Somaliland embraced democracy and remained open for business. While Somalia then tilted toward China and Turkey, Somaliland aligned itself with Taiwan and Israel. Somaliland may not be wealthy, but it is unapologetically pro-American. And while Somaliland is entirely Muslim, it is anti-Islamist not only in rhetoric but also in deed. While terrorism is a weekly feature of life in Mogadishu, there has not been a terrorist attack in Somaliland in almost 20 years.
The State Department’s reading of history is inconsistent. While Clinton and Rubio justify inaction on the supposed inviolability of borders, they ignore the long history of failed federations returning to their constituent parts: Czechoslovakia, the United Arab Republic that briefly united Egypt and Syria, Senegambia, and the Soviet Union. Given Somalia’s failure, forcing Somaliland’s subordination to it would be like forcing Texas into Mexico’s control or accepting Russia’s claims to Ukraine.
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The reason why Somaliland is crucial to winning the war is its strategic geography. It has a 530-mile coastline on the Strait of Hormuz. Its deepwater port at Berbera and neighboring airfield are both recently renovated and among Africa’s best-equipped. Running anti-piracy, anti-Houthi operations from Berbera could keep the Bab el-Mandeb. The port could also help resupply U.S. Navy ships at sea closer to Hormuz. Given Somaliland’s preference for investment over aid and its rich, rare-earth reserves, embracing Somaliland could reap American companies windfall profits.
Rubio may default to State Department groupthink, but that has never won a war. Embracing Somaliland will.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.