Just months ago, Democrats thought they had an abundance of riches in Michigan’s 7th District with two viable candidates running for the nomination. But a deluge of outside spending in the closing weeks of the primary campaign threatens to jeopardize one of the party’s best pickup opportunities.
Former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink are considered two of the stronger recruits for the Democratic Party this cycle, and party operatives were content to let the primary play out, as both are cut from a similar national security cloth.
But the surge of William Lawrence, a progressive activist with ties to the climate change group Sunrise Movement and the beneficiary of major outside spending, could put a top Democratic target at risk if he were to win the primary.
“I can’t honestly say dumping millions of dollars into a primary like this won’t have an impact,” one Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner. “But if I had to guess, I still think Democrats are more likely than not to nominate either Bridget Brink or Matt Maasdam.”
Spending has increased drastically in recent weeks as a pro-Lawrence super PAC has spent over half a million dollars on ad buys. The group — Michigan Sunrise PAC — formed just a week ago and is using the same media buyer as the group that weighed in on a New York primary to boost Lawrence and criticize Maasdam.
Maasdam, who’s backed by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), was accused of being backed by “MAGA billionaires” in a recent ad funded by the Michigan Sunrise PAC.
“The truth: Matt Maasdam is a dark money-backed former Florida Republican,” the ad said. “Don’t let MAGA get their guy.”
The same group put out an ad highlighting Lawrence’s endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), claiming he will “take on Trump.”
Lawrence, Maasdam, and Brink put out a joint statement on Monday condemning the outside money, which is alleged to be funded by Republicans.
“We won’t let a Republican-aligned dark money group decide who represents this district — voters in the 7th will make that choice,” the candidates wrote.
Lawrence has also faced heat recently from Senate Democratic Candidate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), after he drew backlash for unearthed comments questioning black leaders in Washington.
The comments came as the Congressional Black Caucus has become increasingly involved in midterm politics in Michigan and across the country after the Supreme Court overturned elements of the Voting Rights Act. Its PAC urged candidates not to affiliate with Lawrence, who accused older black leaders of undermining the “white Left” with their support for “establishment” politics.
Other GOP-aligned super PACs this cycle have spent heavily to boost more progressive candidates. Lead Left, a Republican-funded super PAC, spent nearly $5 million in four primaries to boost more problematic candidates in competitive races. All four candidates lost.
Although the Democratic Socialists of America does not endorse Lawrence, he is a member of the organization.
“If democratic socialism is believing that everybody deserves a good job and a good home and we should have healthcare that covers us for life, then, yeah, you can call me a democratic socialist or whatever you want,” Lawrence told a local radio outlet.
Momentum from the growing progressive flank of the Democratic Party could result in Lawrence prevailing if Brink and Maasdam split the more moderate vote of the Democratic primary voters in the district.
But Democratic operators remain largely undeterred.
“So far this cycle, Republican efforts to manipulate Democratic primaries have repeatedly fallen short,” the Democratic strategist continued. “The fact that they’re trying again in MI-07 despite that track record says less about the Democratic field than it does about how concerned they are that Tom Barrett is vulnerable heading into the general election.”
But as dark money floods the airwaves to boost Lawrence, spending from the Democratic establishment could unintentionally boost the socialist.
Another group, Michigan Values PAC, which is backed by a Democratic group, has spent more than $800,000 on attack ads against Brink to boost Maasdam. One of the spots highlights Brink’s tenure as President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Ukraine, a position she resigned from in 2025.
As attack ads run against both Brink and Maasdam in the closing weeks, Lawrence could end up the beneficiary, especially as a plurality of votes could be enough to clinch the nomination.
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Scant polling, largely from surveys sponsored by the candidates, has painted an unclear picture of the primary, with a large chunk of the electorate undecided ahead of the Aug. 4 primary.
This district — currently held by Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) — is one of 14 Republican seats labeled a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Barrett won his race by about 4 points in 2024, as Trump won by just 1 point.