The Trump administration’s decision to help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear enrichment program has set off a firestorm. But with the right set of conditions, it could advance American interests in the Middle East.
On July 22, the White House announced that it had approved an agreement with Saudi Arabia that would provide the kingdom with uranium enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear program.
Shortly after this declaration, President Donald Trump clarified that any nuclear agreement would be contingent on Saudi recognition of Israel. Importantly, this announcement was made after the deal itself was signed.
These are seismic pronouncements. Many commentators and policymakers have expressed skepticism and concern. This is understandable. The consequences are profound.
Nuclear enrichment — and, with it, the possibility of developing nuclear weapons — has the potential to upset the status quo both in the Middle East and beyond.
After all, the so-called “nuclear club” is small. For many countries, membership is a status symbol: a means of securing protection and being considered a great power.
Only 15 countries are thought to have active uranium enrichment programs. Notably, the majority of them also possess nuclear weapons.
The era of nonproliferation is coming to an end. This trend has long been clear, but a U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal puts it in sharp relief. The agreement merely recognizes reality.
In the three decades after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, six nations acquired nuclear weapons. For the next quarter-century, however, nonproliferation was largely successful. Both the Soviet Union and the United States had a shared and vested interest in preventing other nations from acquiring nuclear weapons. From 1974 until 1998, no country joined the club.
But first Pakistan and then North Korea successfully tested nuclear weapons. Now the U.S. and its ally Israel are at war with Iran, in part to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The stabilizing effects of the Cold War are long gone, and the national security architecture and assumptions that the U.S. and its allies once cherished must now be revisited and revamped as America girds itself for a new era of great-power competition.
Saudi Arabia has long wanted an enrichment program. If the U.S. does not assist and oversee the kingdom, there is a good chance that one of America’s enemies will. It is far better for the U.S. to offer a guiding hand and provide oversight than for Russia or China to do so. This is the reality, like it or not.
Both Moscow and Beijing have cultivated better relations with the Saudis and their young and powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
Unfortunately, efforts by the Obama and Biden administrations to reach an accord with Iran strained America’s relationship with its longtime Gulf ally. This has given Russia and, in particular, China an opening that they have worked to exploit.
During the last Cold War, Saudi Arabia was a key pillar of the American alliance system. Riyadh remains crucial today.
As the recent war with Iran keenly illustrates, the U.S. and its allies, particularly those in the energy-starved Indo-Pacific, need consistent and reliable access to oil. For this reason, and because of its role as custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, keeping Saudi Arabia on America’s side remains essential.
Still, the introduction of enrichment, and all that it may portend, is a serious proposition, especially in the infamously unstable Middle East. For decades, the kingdom funded Islamists. But in recent years, Saudi leaders have clamped down on Islamic extremism, spooked by the possibility of being overthrown by the same zealots they once celebrated.
Iran and its allies are the chief sources of instability in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic — not the government of Saudi Arabia, whose overthrow Tehran explicitly seeks — is the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism.
To assuage U.S. concerns, Saudi Arabia should normalize relations with Israel. In doing so, Riyadh would show that it has dispensed once and for all with its prior support for financing jihad. This would help attract the foreign investment and support that bin Salman explicitly seeks, and it would lead to a better and more stable future for the kingdom and its many young inhabitants.
Other Middle Eastern nations have made this great leap by joining the Abraham Accords. It is now time for the Saudis to do so and to put the ghosts of the old era behind them.
HOW MANY ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT VOTES IS TOO MANY?
The kingdom can secure congressional support for the agreement by normalizing relations with Israel. It is precisely the sort of bold move that both bin Salman and Trump favor.
Strict terms and oversight are essential. So is Trump’s demand for normalization. But with careful handling, the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal could advance American interests in the Middle East and beyond.