In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Pereyaslav, in which Cossacks from eastern Ukraine pledged allegiance to the tsar. During the ensuing decades of Soviet rule, such gerrymandering did not mean much — the Kremlin ruled all republics with an iron fist.
When the Soviet Union teetered, however, conflict loomed large. Even before the Soviet collapse, fighting erupted between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave that Joseph Stalin had transferred to Azerbaijan, albeit with supposed autonomy. To forestall the eruption of other conflicts, Soviet successor states, including Russia itself, issued the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, formalizing the dissolution of the Soviet Union, affirming the Commonwealth of Independent States and, most importantly, maintaining the sanctity of existing borders. Whatever desire Moscow had to control Crimea, it signed away.
But Ukrainians knew how rapacious Russia could be. In exchange for the forfeiture of their nuclear weapons, in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine solicited the commitment of Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom to defend its borders. President Barack Obama undercut any hope for future diplomacy when, upon the Russian invasion of Crimea, he stood down and showed U.S. word to be without meaning.
While many Americans date the beginning of the Ukraine war to Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian divisions poured across the border and Russian aircraft struck Kyiv and deep into Ukrainian territory, for Ukrainians, the war is now more than a decade long. Visiting military cemeteries in smaller cities like Poltava, between Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as smaller towns, was to see dozens, if not hundreds, of graves of those killed fighting for Crimea long before the second invasion came.
The basis of Russia’s claim to Crimea was both ethnic and linguistic. Neither claim is valid. First, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself denied any real difference between Russian and Ukrainian identities in a 2021 essay. Second, Putin claims that spoken language should define borders, which misunderstands that democracies offer equal rights to all citizens regardless of their first language.
The precedent itself would be self-defeating, however. During the Soviet Union, many Russian women in Siberia married Jewish men because Jewish men drank less and beat them less. With most of the Jews now gone, the growing trend is for Russian women to marry Chinese men for the same reasons. This means a growing Chinese population in cities like Vladivostok and Novosibirsk. This means a future Chinese leader could cite the Putin doctrine to seize mineral-rich Siberian regions, especially should Russia fracture after Putin’s death.
When Russian troops, first Spetsnaz and then the regular army, poured into Crimea, many Crimeans fled, willingly or otherwise. The subsequent referendum on joining Russia was fraudulent. Still, after Russia annexed Crimea, some Crimeans stayed. At a minimum, they accepted Russian passports and papers so they could work, their children could attend school, and they could access medical care. Today, Ukrainians resent the disloyalty of those who stayed. In addition, many other Russians moved into the region, taking over houses and apartment blocks.
A recent visit to Ukraine confirmed that Russia is losing this war. President Donald Trump may want to cut a deal to let Putin save face, but Putin is an ideologue for whom saving face requires exterminating his opponents. This means the war will continue, likely until Putin dies. What is clear, however, is that Crimea’s days as a Russian territory are limited. Ukraine will not rest until they reclaim the land.
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What comes next matters. Not only Russian settlers, but also Ukrainians who took Russian papers will likely need to flee, either to a defeated and depressed Russia, or perhaps to Turkey. Western governments almost always condemn population transfer, but in Crimea’s case, it is inevitable, and peace depends upon it. The question then becomes how to manage it.
Ukrainians are more civilized and law-abiding than Russians, but anger remains high. Perhaps, then, the United States and European donors should begin filling the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees coffers with money earmarked for settling Ukrainian refugees in Crimea and Russians from Crimea elsewhere. There simply can be no peace until Crimea is both Ukrainians and free of traitors.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.