The tragic toll in deaths, injuries, and destruction from Venezuela’s massive earthquakes is not fully known, but it certainly can only increase. The death count rises daily. Initial estimates put the destruction at $6.7 billion, affecting nearly 7 million people, including 2 million in Caracas, the capital city.
As rescue efforts continue, and relief and reconstruction get underway, this disaster will unquestionably have political consequences. If there is any silver lining for Venezuela’s people, it is the widespread proof that, in a time of crisis, their corrupt, authoritarian leaders are failing in their most basic duties. Flagrant graft is and has been endemic under the Chavez-Maduro-Rodriguez regime, one of many factors limiting foreign investment for almost three decades.
Natural disasters have felled governments throughout history, often in dramatic fashion. Years of bad weather and poor crops so devastated French agriculture that widespread famine was a principal cause of the 1789 French Revolution. In Nicaragua, a catastrophic earthquake in 1972, followed by widespread corruption in relief efforts by Anastasio Somoza’s corrupt government, undermined his authority and led to its 1979 overthrow by Sandinista rebels. While it’s too soon to conclude that the same outcome will occur in Venezuela, the signs are ominous. Ironically, the biggest obstacle to the dictatorship’s fall may well be the Trump administration.
Venezuela’s suffering comes amid a prolonged economic decline, decrepit energy infrastructure, a near-total absence of foreign investment, and a crushing, unexpectedly high national debt that will require the largest sovereign restructuring in history. Little has changed since Nicolas Maduro’s removal, despite recent claims of new foreign investment, which will require years before its full impact, assuming it comes at all.
Venezuela’s healthcare system was already almost defunct. In 2019, for example, the president of the International Red Cross told me that in his just-completed trip to Venezuela, he had not seen hospitals in such sad conditions since his last visit to North Korea. Under the strain of massive numbers of injuries, displaced persons, newly orphaned children, and inadequate or broken sanitary water systems, prospects are guaranteed to be grim. President Donald Trump said before the quakes that Venezuela “has become a happy country,” but its citizens beg to disagree. Given the grasping, avaricious nature of the thugs still running Venezuela, it is no surprise they see the inflow of food, medicine, and other humanitarian assistance as an opportunity to enrich themselves. Their behavior, combined with massive incompetence and delays, is inflaming citizen discontent.
Acting President Delcy Rodriguez was greeted by shouts of “get out, get out” when she recently visited rescue efforts at a collapsed building in Caracas. This is the real face of popular sentiment. The Trump administration is sending significant relief and recovery assistance, but with a decidedly political tinge. Incredibly, the effort appears singularly attuned to bolstering the Rodriguez regime.
Having dismantled USAID, Trump’s rush to provide disaster assistance to Venezuela seems anomalous. His initial post-earthquake comment was that Washington stood “ready, willing, and able to help.” Tellingly, he also said, “We will be there for our new and great friends.” This is classic Trump-speak. Because he now sees Rodriguez and her regime (absent only Maduro) as friends, in whom he has invested considerable personal credibility, he is rushing to assist them.
Trump says Venezuelans are “dancing in the streets” in support of American assistance, but this is just more creative rhetoric. Former Venezuelan U.N. Ambassador Diego Arria, by contrast, observes that working too closely with Rodriguez “is causing resentment among the people. Today, it’s against the Delcy government. Tomorrow it’ll be against the United States.” Blind American support for Rodriguez and her cronies will transform a praiseworthy relief effort into support for a fundamentally anti-American regime.
Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, made several attempts to persuade Trump’s advisers that the crisis required that she return home. She was repeatedly rejected, purportedly because her presence would complicate White House efforts to deal with Rodriguez. Indeed, Trump’s advisers actually aborted a flight Machado had already begun on June 26, requiring her to return to Miami. The administration’s theory of the case is completely backward. Machado could help galvanize voluntary relief efforts, thereby showing the potential to end rule by the seemingly endless Chaves-Maduro-Rodriguez gang. The only trouble Machado would cause would be to Rodriguez.
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Instead of helping the opposition, which legitimately won the 2024 presidential election before Maduro stole it, Trump is doing the opposite. He is obstructing the opportunity to empower a democratically elected government that has pledged to follow rule-of-law principles and restore confidence among potential foreign investors. The U.S. has 2,000 troops in Venezuela, not enough to constitute an “invasion force,” but enough to be helpful if necessary.
Washington still has time to reverse its mistaken, pro-Rodriquez line. Venezuelans would be overwhelmingly supportive, and their road to real recovery and progress would open.