In its decision to launch a war against Iran in a bid to gain exclusive control over access to Persian oil and gas resources, the United States has ignored a harsh reality: Geography trumps military power.
Iran’s mountainous terrain dominates the entire northern shore of the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint. The American military juggernaut, built around dazzling technology, has been stalled by the remnants of a battered Iranian military poorly equipped with low-tech weapons.
Washington may be tempted to escalate dramatically to shatter the stalemate, but decision-makers should think twice before making such an ill-advised move. Beyond the Persian Gulf, Iran is geostrategically vital to Russia and China, so ultimately, Washington most likely will be confronted with the prospect of waging a proxy war with Moscow and Beijing. Failure is writ large.
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The Caspian Sea is a vital national interest of Russia. The Caspian Sea anchors Russia’s southeastern underbelly in Central Asia, while Ukraine anchors Russia’s southwestern border in Europe. Russia dominates the northern shore of the Caspian and has de facto control over both the western and eastern shores.
Azerbaijan overlooks the western shore, while Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan overlook the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. These three Central Asian states were formerly part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union and continue to be firmly ensconced within the sphere of influence of the Russian Federation.
Iran dominates the entire southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Tehran is only 62 miles from its shores. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan share land borders with Iran. Clearly, an Iran that is under the de facto control of a power whose interests are inimical to the vital national interests of Russia would not be acceptable to Moscow.
So, if the U.S. decides to double down on war and finish the job of ensuring Iranian unconditional surrender, Russia is likely to escalate its support of the beleaguered Iranian regime via enhanced intelligence sharing, particularly with respect to targeting U.S. and allied military assets in the region, and a steady flow of low- and medium-tech military equipment to keep America trapped in a Persian quagmire.
Indeed, a collateral benefit of such Russian support for Iran would be a significant decline in U.S. military support for Ukraine, as Washington is forced to redirect military supplies to bolster its war against Iran. With respect to Ukraine, Russia has already achieved a substantial part of its goals, and a U.S. that is preoccupied elsewhere could put Moscow over the finish line.
Moreover, if history is any guide, a Russian move to counter the possible emergence of a hostile Iran should not come as a surprise to Washington. At the onset of World War I, Russia and Great Britain invaded and occupied Iran, with the northern part of the country, including Tehran, falling within the Russian zone. Likewise, at the onset of World War II, the Soviet Union and Great Britain jointly invaded and occupied Iran — Operation Countenance. In both cases, the objective was to ensure that Iran did not fall under the influence of a hostile Germany.
While Russia’s geostrategic interest in Iran is anchored in military security, China’s geostrategic interest in Iran is rooted in energy security.
Other than energy-rich Russia, with whom China shares a long land border, Iran is the only major oil and gas exporter possessing significant oil and gas reserves to satisfy a substantial portion of China’s energy import requirements via land-based pipelines that would completely bypass the major maritime oil and natural gas trade routes under the de facto control of the U.S. Simply put, Iran is the ideal hedge from China’s energy security perspective.
Iran shares a 595-mile land border with Pakistan, which in turn shares a 272-mile land border with China. Tehran and Islamabad have enjoyed friendly relations since Pakistan’s independence in 1947. China and Pakistan have been de facto allies for over 65 years. Indeed, the close mutual relations among the three countries have enabled Islamabad to play a critical role in brokering the current fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
China and Pakistan are in the midst of a transformational infrastructure project, the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. When completed, the CPEC will be a network of roads, railways, and energy pipelines, connecting Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Gulf of Oman to Kashgar, China’s trade entrepot in Xinjiang province. The centerpiece of the CPEC will be a pipeline linking Iranian oil and gas fields to China’s energy terminal in Kashgar. An energy pipeline running from Iran to the Pakistan border near Gwadar is already in place. Also, a highway from Gwadar to Kashgar has been built.
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If the U.S. were to succeed in its effort to gain control over access to Iran’s oil and gas resources, China’s energy security would be seriously jeopardized. It is highly unlikely that Beijing will acquiesce to such an outcome. Accordingly, if the U.S. embarks on a major escalation of its war on Iran, China, perhaps via Russia and Pakistan, will seek to safeguard its energy security by providing Iran with significant military and economic support. Again, as in the case of Russia, China’s objective would be to ensure that the U.S. is ensnared in a Persian quagmire.
So, before climbing the escalation ladder in its war against Iran, Washington should beware of the revenge of geography.
Samir Tata is the founder and president of International Political Risk Analytics, an advisory firm based in Reston, Virginia, and author of the book Reflections on Grand Strategy: The Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century.