The push to wed the American right to Catholicism is not new, but it has reached a fever pitch. I’m a friend of both — by all means be Catholic, and by all means be right-wing — but please do not imagine that this marriage is anything short of a blunder.
The vows are all but ready. JD Vance has just released a conversion memoir, Communion, in which he attributes his own rise to capitalizing on the “the fusion between Republican politics and the Christianity of my youth.” A cadre of intellectuals — notably, Patrick Deneen, whom Vance cites as a major influence, and Adrian Vermeule — are busy drafting the philosophical basis for this union. The popular National Conservatism manifesto declares that in a Christian-majority nation, a subtle way of saying “America,” “public life should be rooted in Christianity and its moral vision.” The Dispatch, in its documentary on the movement, asked in earnest whether Catholicism has become “the backbone” of the right.
To be clear, the traditional Christian right is not one faction, nor is it even entirely Catholic, though Catholicism has certainly stolen the spotlight. There are, among others, the integralists, who would subordinate the state to the Church; the withdrawalists, who are buying farms and disappearing; and the national conservatives — Vance’s camp — who want to win elections with border-and-eggs populism and Catholic identity tacked on. Vance flirts with more fringe Catholic postliberalism, but for electoral purposes, he admits: “There are a lot of things the Catholic Church teaches that frankly, Americans would just never go for.”
But clearly, he thinks they would go for some of it — otherwise, why the Catholic emphasis at all? One keeps hearing that traditional Christianity is some grand new marketing strategy and, in particular, that the Catholic electorate are “kingmakers”; we’re entering our “Catholic moment.” Even in evangelical political circles, namely Turning Point USA events, it feels as if there are more references to Jesus than policy — one often wonders whether conservatism is a political party trying to win elections or a prayer group. But this, we are assured, is the future of the American right.
Are Catholic voters important? Certainly. But conservatives should not overplay this hand: Their Catholic base is far smaller and softer than advertised. Despite all the talk of “making Christianity cool again,” the Catholic Church is unfortunately one of the leakiest institutions in American life: it loses 8.4 members for every one it gains. Barely 57% of those raised in the faith remain, the lowest retention of any major Christian tradition, not that any sect is doing very well.
Many of the “Catholic revival” claims, which are used to justify the impending importance of this bloc, are an agglomeration of anecdotes from writers’ local priests and cherry-picked data. Often, it relies on pretending COVID-19 did not happen. Adult baptisms in 2024 were 34,501, up from 25,356 in 2020. Incredible, a fifth great awakening! (The 2019 figure was 35,799.)
Perhaps the most common narrative in all of this is that Gen Z, and Gen Z men especially, are pious angels. Gen Z Americans are, by far, the least Catholic generation to date. Because they are 25% less religious than their boomer grandparents, Pew’s projections have the religiously unaffiliated growing drastically in the coming decades.
Still, it will be objected that Catholics punch above their weight through sheer cohesion. While Christianity correlates with desirable behavior, at both the individual and community levels, Catholics are far from being a succinct bunch. White Catholics dissent from Rome en masse, and, per polling, hold a litany of heretical views. Moreover, 29% attend Mass weekly, and only one in five meets the modest standard of weekly Mass, daily prayer, and calling religion “very important.”
One might hope the converts are more serious, but they’re vanishingly few, and the leading reason for conversion is a wedding in a church. While I share their taste for stained glass and nice ceremonies, I doubt these newlyweds will be turning the tide in American politics.
Insofar as there is a mass of truly devout Catholics, you have Joe Biden to thank. His open border did more for the sheer quantity of practicing Catholics than anything the Catholic right has mustered. This leads to another point: No, they will not vote Republican. Only 49% are GOP leaners, and this is drying up as Catholicism becomes more Hispanic. Only 15% of Hispanic Catholics are Republican.
The most important voting trend to notice, though, is that Catholics as a whole are not receptive to traditional Catholic or Christian messaging. In fact, the laity is shouting “no” to every plank of the trad program: Sixty percent want a church that is “more inclusive, even if it means changing some teachings,” against just 37% who want it to “stick to tradition.” Eighty-four percent want the church to permit contraception, and majorities back IVF, married priests, and women’s ordination. Even on abortion, roughly 57% of Catholics say it should be legal in all or most cases. The trads can rightly note that observant, weekly-Mass Catholics flip these stats — but only about three in ten Catholics attend Mass regularly, which means you are pitching this to a minority of a minority.
Catholics also recoil at any insinuation of Christian nationalism or fusion of church and state. Only one in 10 Catholics views Christian nationalism favorably, and half say the Bible should have no bearing on the law.
Perhaps the greatest irony is that Pope Leo XIV is not blessing this marriage. He vehemently opposes these right-wing Catholic platforms, America’s included. And 78% of American Catholics view him favorably, while a majority say Trump has been too critical of him.
THE POPULIST IMMIGRATION CIRCUS
To tie or otherwise associate your party’s identity to a minority of voters who aren’t even especially fond of you, while also threatening to deport large swaths of them, does not immediately strike me as a winning strategy. It is also not necessarily Vance’s strategy — he is certainly no Catholic identitarian, and his conversion, widely derided as politically motivated, seems sincere enough to me. The same cannot be said for the movement that has sprung up around him, and for no apparent reason.
The right can win in Washington via appeals to the border, cost of living, and everything that motivates voters without invoking Rome. I can see no good reason for this marriage to proceed. Join me in objecting.