A crisis of deepening fuel and goods shortages is afflicting Russia on the Crimean Peninsula. But it’s only going to get worse. Russia cannot successfully defend its occupation of the Ukrainian territory against Kyiv’s increasing attacks.
This reflects a broader strategic reality. Namely, that contrary to President Vladimir Putin‘s stoic claims of steady progress, Russia’s war in Ukraine is going very badly for the Kremlin. Russian forces are taking massive casualties (with more than 350,000 combat deaths since the war began in February 2022) to secure only localized territorial gains. At the same time, Ukrainian drones are increasingly operating with freedom across all of northwestern and western Russia. Recent weeks have seen remarkable strikes on Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg, just as a major marquee international conference began. We’ve seen escalated strikes on Russian fuel depots and military factories. And we’ve seen black smoke, visible all across the Russian capital, born of Ukrainian attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure.
Crimea is under particular pressure.
Occupied by Russia since 2014, the peninsula’s supply of fuel is now at critically low levels. This is a result of Ukraine’s steady degradation of Russian air defenses in and around the territory, and the associated boosted ability of Ukrainian drones and missiles to attack targets at will. Fearing catastrophic secondary explosions, Russia has been loath to use its Kerch Bridge connection between Crimea and Russia’s Taman Peninsula to bring much-needed fuel and goods across at scale. This has forced most fuel supplies to instead be delivered via running the gauntlet of the southern Ukrainian mainland highways. But many of these supplies are being intercepted by Ukrainian drones, as are fuel ferries making the hop across the Black Sea. Three ferries were destroyed all at once in just the past week.
The consequences for Putin’s prestige peninsula are profound.
Russian tourists are abandoning their planned vacations to Crimea, with basic foodstuffs running low and rolling power cuts being introduced to ration energy supplies. But worse is yet to come.
As Ukraine continues to strengthen its grip around the peninsula, Putin will have to choose between evacuating its civilian population or suffering ever more apparent blows to his prestige. This cuts to the heart of the Russian president’s war narrative. After all, Putin began this war with the argument that he needed to bring down the Ukrainian government in order to prevent its supposed growing threats to the Russian mainland. Now he is being defeated in what was once presented as an impenetrable stronghold. The Kerch Bridge, a very sensitive topic to Russia (as I know personally), would never have been built if Putin thought what is happening now would be a possibility.
WHAT WILL PRESUMPTIVE NEW PRIME MINISTER ANDY BURNHAM MEAN FOR THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP?
For Russians in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Voronezh, Sevastopol, and all across the country, more than four years into a “special military operation” that was supposed to be over in weeks, victory has never looked more distant. As time drags on and the attacks continue, Putin will feel increasing pressure to either escalate dramatically or cut his losses.
The United States and its allies should ensure Putin cannot get away with the former option.