When it comes to prediction markets, the artificial intelligence bubble has nothing on Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Nearly tied with Vice President JD Vance in the odds for the 2028 GOP Presidential nomination, Rubio’s odds are more overvalued than any other political bet.
That’s not to say Rubio is doing a poor job as Secretary of State. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Rubio has managed his foreign policy portfolio capably, to say the least. Always on message and articulate, his rising odds are far more about his competence than a true reflection of his chances in 2028. Unfortunately, competence is not a prerequisite for being elected president (see former President Joe Biden).
The fact is that the Republican nomination is Vance’s to lose. Starting with Richard Nixon in 1960, every vice president who made a serious play for their party’s nomination has either won it to succeed directly from the vice presidency or one term in the future.
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At the time of writing, Kalshi has Vance and Rubio nearly tied. A Vance bet costs 32 cents to win $1.00 if he is nominated just over 26 months from now. A Rubio bet costs 30 cents. Polymarket gives Vance a modestly larger advantage, 30.1 cents to 26.3 cents for Rubio.
Historically, only Dan Quayle and Biden were denied their place in line. Quayle, who was an object of derision both within and without the Republican Party (not to mention lazy), waited four years to run and mounted a weak effort. Biden had to wait a term in favor of former first lady Hillary Clinton, who barely lost the Democratic nomination eight years prior and had the vast Clinton money and political network at her disposal. All the others — Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, and Al Gore — got their turn.
In my view, Vance should be at about 70 cents, or 70% to win. There is always the possibility he passes on 2028, for family reasons, or he might judge his prospects to win as too weak. However, it’s generally a bad idea to walk away from your best shot at the nomination, and I think Vance knows that. He could also suffer a health issue. That seems unlikely given he is only 41, and while I won’t hazard his exact weight, I estimate it at half a Pritzker.
Putting personal issues and whatever black swans might be out there at 10%, that leaves the Trump factor. Any other president would endorse their VP or stay silent. But that sure isn’t President Donald Trump.
Trump’s public musings about the relative strengths of each have clearly boosted Rubio. But the fact is that it’s president or bust for Vance. For him to accept staying as vice president while Rubio gets promoted to top dog would be intolerable. I would put the odds at 99+% that Vance would rather go back to Ohio than accept the humiliation of being stranded as No. 2. Trump just can’t pick both.
It’s far easier for Rubio to agree to be VP than Vance, although Rubio could present an “all or nothing” ultimatum to Trump. Vance might even be able to mount his own challenge without Trump’s support, depending on where the president’s approval is in 2028, though that’s a longshot. Vance is no Quayle. He is smart, articulate and ambitious and will have had three years to build his own support within the GOP.
Trump can be mercurial, to say the least. But defenestrating his own vice president is a huge stretch. Vance would have to really, really get on the bad side of Trump — something I doubt a shrewd operator like him would do. It’s definitely guesswork, but all things said, my best guess puts Trump flaking on Vance at 20%.
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Rubio is not totally out of it. He’s just overvalued at 26 to 30 cents. I would not give him the full balance after Vance’s chances. With no children at home, family is probably not an issue unless his wife vetoes a run. He is older than Vance – being 55 and in good shape (also weighing about half a Pritzker) makes health issues possible, but unlikely. Between those issues, also choosing to talk a pass in fear of losing, and whatever black swans, drop 10 points.
If you want to bet on it, I would absolutely be a buyer on Vance at any price under 70 cents, with the current market a huge bargain. As for Rubio, I would wait and see. If he falls to 20 cents, that’s fair value and a good hedge. And if you have some of your stake left over, take the Steelers under 8.5 total wins.
Keith Naughton is a U.S.-based journalist.