LOS ANGELES — Republican Steve Hilton has been near the top of virtually every statewide poll since entering California’s crowded and unpredictable gubernatorial race a year ago. But he isn’t acting like a front-runner.
“We can’t take anything for granted,” he told the Washington Examiner just hours before polls opened Tuesday morning. “We have to act like we are third; we have to fight like we were third. I tell my supporters, ‘Don’t let this slip away. Don’t take anything for granted.’ So we’re just going full out until the last possible moment to get every vote we can, because you never know in an election.”
Over 60 candidates are running to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who is term-limited and widely expected to launch a 2028 presidential bid.
Calling California’s marquee race rocky and unpredictable would be an understatement.
The first candidates launched their campaigns two years ago, but deep-pocketed donors largely stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see who else would enter the race. There was widespread speculation that former Vice President Kamala Harris would jump in — something she repeatedly teased — but she ultimately decided against it in July. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) also had strong name recognition, and many believed the Democratic Party would rally behind him, but he, too, passed. So, too, did billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso.
Former congresswoman Katie Porter, who lost to Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) in last year’s U.S. Senate race, announced her candidacy. But Porter grabbed voters’ attention for the wrong reasons. She made national headlines after nearly storming out of a CBS interview in October, and again after old footage surfaced showing her berating a staffer.
A month later, billionaire Tom Steyer and then-Rep. Eric Swalwell, both of whom are Democrats, entered the race. In January, Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, backed by Silicon Valley donors, also joined the field.
For months, no clear front-runner on the Democratic side emerged. Then Swalwell began to surge. He had established himself in Congress as a de facto leader of the Democratic “Resistance” movement against President Donald Trump and started gaining ground in an increasingly crowded gubernatorial race. But his abrupt downfall following allegations of sexual assault and misconduct not only derailed what had become the leading campaign, but it also left a significant void just weeks before mail-in ballots were sent out in early May.
As Democrats scrambled, Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican, began making inroads with voters. Both were consistently near the top of public polls, setting off alarms within the Democratic establishment.
After no candidate cleared the 60% endorsement threshold at the state Democratic Party’s convention, some began contemplating a nightmare scenario: a fractured field that would allow two Republicans to claim both spots in the runoff in the deep-blue state. Democrats make up nearly 45% of registered voters, while Republicans account for just over 25%. Independents make up roughly 30% of the electorate. California’s last Republican governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.
But the tide shifted after Trump posted on Truth Social that he was endorsing Hilton. Trump reposted his endorsement Monday night.
“Trump just outsmarted himself on this one — if one can use the word smart in conjunction with Trump,” Garry South, a veteran California political strategist, told the Washington Examiner after Trump’s first endorsement. “Endorsing one of the Republicans in the race pretty much assures that that candidate goes up and the other starts to decline with Republican voters who follow Trump’s lead. … Trump likely just ended Democratic angst about two Republicans ending up in the runoff.”
It was around that time that former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra began gaining support across the state. Political analysts differ on why his campaign, rather than another Democrat’s, gained momentum, but the race’s dynamics began to shift.
Now, Hilton, Becerra, and Steyer — who has climbed back into the race after pouring millions of his own dollars into the contest — are locked in at the top. The most recent poll from McLaughlin & Associates, taken between May 26-28, had Hilton and Steyer locked dead even at 25%, with Becerra trailing at 19%. The most recent Emerson poll, taken from May 27-28, had Becerra in the lead at 28%, with Steyer and Hilton locked at 23%.
South told the Washington Examiner on Monday that “based on the latest polling, and a look at the votes that have already been cast, it’s hard to see any outcome other than Becerra finishing first, and Hilton and Steyer fighting it out for second.”
“In the end, I think Hilton makes the run-off, the way the Trump endorsement has elevated him above Bianco among Republicans,” he added.
Hilton said he’s fine with Bianco being squeezed out.
“It’s just obvious, looking at the numbers, that there’s only one candidate now that can make it into the top two that represents change, and that’s me,” he said. “This is why we hate this whole top two system, because it ends up with these endless conversations about tactics and poll numbers and who’s up and who’s down, rather than actually debating the issues, but whatever. We’ve got this system. We’ve got to win with this system.”
Hilton, whose campaign has focused heavily on affordability, argues that California’s problems stem from Newsom and Democratic supermajorities in Sacramento. He said his campaign’s success is evidence that voters are clamoring for change. And despite constantly bashing Newsom, he insists it’s nothing personal.
“We actually have friends in common,” he told the Washington Examiner. “I’ve actually known him for years. You can have a personal relationship with someone without necessarily agreeing with what they do as a politician, and that’s how I see Gavin Newsom. It’s not personal; I just think he’s done a terrible job, and we need change.”
Like Hilton, Becerra, and Steyer have also been traveling across California, trying to court voters.
At a Sunday rally in Long Beach, Becerra told a packed crowd of about labor union members and immigrants that he was the steady hand in the race and would stand up to Trump on their behalf.
The 68-year-old Sacramento resident brings decades of public service experience to the race. His resume includes a stint in the California Assembly, 24 years representing Los Angeles in Congress, serving as the state’s attorney general, and holding a Cabinet role in the Biden administration.
“I am not learning this job on Day One,” he said at the rally. “I have done this job. …On housing, on my first day as governor, I will declare California’s housing shortage a state of emergency. Right now, there are nearly 40,000 affordable housing units sitting shovel-ready to be built. Right now, they’re just waiting for funding.”
Becerra also made a snide remark at Steyer, his billionaire Democratic opponent, telling the amped up crowd that a vote for Becerra would prove that California’s election cannot be bought.
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Steyer spent his final full day of campaigning in Westwood, speaking with students at UCLA, and faced questions about spending $200 million of his own money in this campaign.
“You’re right. My first name for the last year has been billionaire, and a lot of people are very offended by that, and I understand that,” he said. “I’m the only billionaire on the ballot, but not the only billionaire in this race, because there are a lot of billionaires who think they know how to make this race turn out the way they want it.”