First son Donald Trump Jr. has not completely ruled out launching a 2028 presidential campaign. But speculation is brewing that he could be positioning himself as a dark-horse candidate before primary jockeying picks up.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are the heavy favorites to be frontrunners in the race if they eventually launch presidential campaigns. Yet there is some indication that Republican voters are receptive to President Donald Trump’s eldest son.
A 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference poll showed Trump Jr. tied in third place with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 2%. Vance won the poll at 53%, and Rubio came in second at 25%.
A RealClearPolitics composite of 2028 polling also shows Trump Jr. in third place, averaging 10.4% support, behind Vance at 38.6% and Rubio at 21.9%.
Trump Jr. has said he’s not interested in following in his father’s footsteps. “I’ve always said, while I’ll never 100% rule it out down the line, I have ZERO interest in running for office in 28 or anytime soon,” he wrote on X last month.
But much could change between now and the primaries. Vance and Rubio still have two more years to navigate tumult in the Trump administration, currently bogged down by the Iran war. They’ll also need to contend with the president’s continued grip on the Republican Party, even as his approval rating sinks. A recent Fox News poll found that 80% of Republican voters approve of Trump’s presidency, while nearly three-quarters of GOP voters support the Iran war.
If they were to flounder, it could open the door for a figure not part of the second administration.
“Don Jr. has seen the good, bad, and ugly of public office, and having been a part of the first family twice, there’s a good chance that scratched the itch enough,” said a source close to the White House who requested anonymity.
Bob Vander Plaats, an influential evangelical leader who heads the Family Leader, cautioned that any 2028 speculation will depend on the results of the midterm elections. Iowa, known for its first-in-the-nation caucuses, will have a Senate race, a governor’s race, and three competitive House races on the ballot.
“Don Jr. worked Iowa very hard for his dad in ’16, ’20, and ’24, so he would have a lot of contacts here. His last name being Trump doesn’t hurt him,” said Vander Plaats. “If the midterms go really, really well for Iowa and the country, I think that’s an advantage to JD Vance. If midterms go really south, that may be a disadvantage to a Vance, or maybe even a disadvantage to a Don Jr., because they probably read that as the country is ready to kind of move on.”
If Democrats take back control of the House or Senate, Vander Plaats said, there would be more candidates willing to jump into the 2028 GOP primary. “I do believe if the midterms don’t go the way we’d like them to go, it’s probably going to be a big field of candidates,” he said.
British gossip columnist Rob Shuter alleged in a Substack post that Trump Jr. is “quietly positioning himself for a future presidential run” and that getting married to his wife, Bettina Anderson, is part of that calculus. Yet the president’s decision to skip the wedding to focus on the Iran war also allegedly increased speculation that he may not be as sold on a 2028 run for his offspring.
One national Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak freely, cast doubt on whether Trump Jr. is a viable presidential candidate.
“I just don’t think that Republican primary voters are going to simply pick the son of Donald Trump because he’s the son of Donald Trump; that is his only real qualification,” said the strategist.
Unlike his son, the president was known in the decades before his first presidential run in 2016 as a reality TV show host, a New York City businessman, and a frequent tabloid subject.
“Donald Trump Jr. is basically a GOP bomb thrower who shares the name with the current president of the United States,” said the strategist. “That is about the extent of his qualification. So I understand in polls he shows up in third place or fourth place because people recognize the name, but I have trouble believing that this is a real thing.”
Amazon is reportedly thinking of tapping the younger Trump to host a potential reboot of The Apprentice, the same show that made his father a national star. President Trump offered some words of encouragement about the report last month at a White House event. “We’ll see what happens,” said the president. “He’s good. He’s a good guy. He’s probably good. He’s got a little charisma going.”
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However, a Make America Great Again figure from Trump’s first administration cast doubt that Trump Jr. would run, citing his recent marriage and business interests.
“Don Jr. is hitting his stride in business, looks more engaged than ever,” said the official. “Seems like he is everywhere with big deals both here and overseas. Don’t know if he would take two years out of his life now to dedicate everything to politics.”