The nation’s most populous state is holding its primaries on Tuesday, including close elections that will draw national attention.
While California is renowned as the most significant blue bastion in the country, its size and diversity mean several congressional races are competitive or Republican-leaning. Republicans have a rare shot in the gubernatorial race, and the Los Angeles mayoral primary also has many in the party optimistic.
Most California elections use a unique primary system in which the top two candidates advance to the general election in November, regardless of party.
Here are the primary races to watch in California on Tuesday:
Packed gubernatorial race
The California gubernatorial race is one of the most packed in the country, with 61 candidates, of various seriousness, throwing their hats in the ring.
Roughly five candidates are polling at striking distance of the two top spots. This includes two Republicans — political commentator Steve Hilston and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — and three Democrats — former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former congresswoman Katie Porter, and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer.
Current polling puts Becerra and Hilton at the top spots, but last-minute turnout could alter the outcome.
Some Republican analysts were hoping early in the race that the relatively high-polling Hilton and Bianco could end up taking the two top spots due to the crowded Democratic field splitting the Democratic vote, but these chances were largely dashed after President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton.
Porter and Becerra have been burned by scandal, particularly the former. Porter has been hit with allegations of mistreating her staff, allegations backed up by leaked videos showing her berating her subordinates.
Dana Williamson, a former adviser to Becerra, pleaded guilty to federal corruption-related charges tied to a scheme prosecutors say siphoned money from a dormant campaign account. Becerra hasn’t been charged or officially accused of wrongdoing, but his association has put him on the defensive. At the last gubernatorial debate, Hilton leaned into the corruption angle, telling Becerra he shouldn’t be in the race, but rather “should be preparing your criminal defense,” drawing gasps from the debate audience.
Steyer, who ran for president in 2020, has leveraged his wealth in massive ad spending. This has so far failed to close the polling gap, however.
The gubernatorial race has revolved around questions of affordability, regulations, environmental policies, and crime.
Los Angeles mayoral primary
The race that has taken many by surprise in its competitiveness, and one of the closest watched nationally, is in one of the traditionally bluest cities in the country.
Democratic Mayor Karen Bass is up for reelection, weathering attacks from her handling of homelessness and last year’s devastating fires. An unlikely challenger in the form of former reality star Spencer Pratt, who said he decided to run after his house was burned down in the inferno, accusing Bass of negligence.
Pratt was known as a reality TV show villain in the 2000s, but has since transformed his public image. He’s focused on corruption, mismanagement, homelessness, and crime, giving him some widespread appeal despite his Republican affiliation. He’s so far been able to largely avoid wider debates that could risk polarizing the electorate, such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Trump, and many culture war issues.
Pratt’s campaign has also been characterized by his savvy use of social media and campaign ads with high production value.
From the opposite end is Los Angeles City Councilwoman Nithya Raman, a socialist being cast as the city’s version of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Her entrance into the race came as a surprise, as she filed just hours before the deadline and had endorsed Bass’s reelection campaign just weeks before.
Raman’s campaign message has largely focused on issues of housing and affordability, but her associations have drawn her criticism. During her campaign, she was interviewed by leftist commentator Hasan Piker, known for saying the U.S. “deserved 9/11” and who openly defends designated terrorist groups such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
The final polls of the race showed the three candidates all within the margin of error of each other.
22nd District
The race for California’s 22nd Congressional District is considered one of the most competitive nationwide, with Democrats hoping to finally unseat the incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-CA). His position is more vulnerable than ever after being a victim of the national redistricting battle, but is almost guaranteed to be one of the top two candidates who advance to the general election.
That makes the real show on Tuesday the one between the centrist, establishment Democratic State Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, and progressive Democrat Randy Villegas. Each has a hefty list of endorsements backing them up; Bains has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Planned Parenthood, while Villegas is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
48th District
One of the victims of the California Democrats’ redistricting move, the traditionally Republican-leaning 48th District is now more favorable to Democrats. The seat is open after Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) announced his retirement.
Supervisor Jim Desmond is almost guaranteed to advance to the general due to his consolidation of the Republican field. He’s viewed as a centrist Republican who can also rely on MAGA support over Trump’s endorsement.
As with the 22nd District, the 48th District’s true contest on Tuesday is that between the Democrats — a three-way contest between San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, former Obama administration official Ammar Campa-Najjar, and economist Brandon Riker.
Unlike the 22nd District, the contest can be labeled less as one between the progressive and centrist wings of the Democratic Party and more as one of different emphases.
Wilpert, the leader in polling among Democrats, has stressed her experience in governance; Campa-Najjar is running on a populist, progressive Democratic message; and Riker is running on a platform of innovative solutions to problems like Medicare expansion.
11th District
California’s 11th District is finally opening up after Democratic heavyweight Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced her retirement, following decades in power. A Democrat is all but guaranteed to win the top two spots, and inherit much of the prestige that comes with Pelosi’s seat.
The three foremost contenders are State Sen. Scott Weiner (D-CA), tech entrepreneur Saikat Chakrabarti, and Supervisor Connie Chan. All can be described as some variant of progressive Democrat, even the establishment-favored Weiner.
Weiner is polling nearly double his closest competitor, almost guaranteeing him a spot on the ballot in November. He’s running on LGBT advocacy, affordability, and local issues. He scored the major endorsement of the California Democratic Party.
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Pelosi’s chosen successor is Chan, but her relatively low polling shows the former Democratic powerhouse’s plummeting influence within the party. Chan is running on progressive and labor priorities.
Chakrabarti is best known as Ocasio-Cortez’s former chief of staff and is running on a similar platform.