The results are in from the highly anticipated Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). And the winner is … James Talarico!
Talarico, the Democratic nominee, wasted no time after Trump-endorsed Paxton handily defeated incumbent Cornyn. He posted Paxton’s mugshot with a caption slamming the Texas attorney general for having been indicted on three felony counts for investment fraud, reported to the FBI by his own staff for bribery, and impeached by his own party for corruption. Democratic donors appear excited at the prospect of a Talarico-Paxton matchup, with the left-wing candidate raking in a record $600,000 haul after it became clear he would be running against Paxton.
Don’t get it twisted: Talarico remains a long shot to win the Texas Senate election in November, but in a state where Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) only beat then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke by 2.5 percentage points in 2018, nominating a vulnerable candidate such as Paxton may present more risk than the potential payoff is worth.
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If Cornyn had won on Tuesday, I’d anticipate the general election being a snooze-fest. Cornyn is a boring but safe candidate with a history of electoral success as a senator dating back to 2002. There is certainly an argument to be made that Paxton would make for a better senator than Cornyn because he aligns more with President Donald Trump’s agenda, but none of that matters if he loses to Talarico.
Part of Cornyn’s statewide allure is his independence from Trump. They agree on almost everything, but he’s been willing to do what he thinks is right, even if it means drawing the president’s ire. While Paxton’s nomination is a big win for Trump’s primary endorsement record, it’s also a bet that he can ride the president’s coattails to victory in the general election.
That’s not a terrible bet, I might add, but the odds are certainly longer than going with the shoo-in candidate in Cornyn — and for what added benefit?
The biggest issue in the Texas primary was the SAVE America Act. Paxton’s victory is seen as a win for much-needed voter ID legislation — but how much is it really? Cornyn was a co-sponsor of the bill, and while he initially balked at eliminating or weakening the filibuster to pass it, he eventually came around. Paxton, to his credit, understood that the Democrats would kill the filibuster in a heartbeat to pass their agenda, and fought hard for Republicans to do the same from the get-go.
Paxton is a fighter, while Cornyn is a statesman. The key difference between the two is more style than substance. However, where they do differ on substance, admittedly, I often favor Paxton. He’s stronger on gun rights and border control and is more skeptical of writing blank checks to foreign countries.
So if you’re a Trump Republican like me, you are getting a candidate who marginally aligns more with your views. In return, you’re getting a candidate who is reliant on the MAGA movement, whereas Cornyn was successful before MAGA and would likely be successful after Trump is gone, and comes with the baggage of corruption scandals and association with fringe wingnut Steve Bannon.
Trump Republicans obviously want the president’s agenda passed through Congress. Holding just 53 seats in the Senate and a slim 217-212 majority in the House, the GOP has no margin for error in November if it wants to prevent a two-year lame-duck period for the president. The Democrats are already motivated on the issues of affordability and the Iran war, and the nomination of a flawed candidate in Paxton could present a golden opportunity to snatch an all-important Senate seat from their opponents’ hands. There could even be trickle-down effects if polling is tight, as Republicans may end up having to spend more in Texas than they otherwise would have — money that could have been spent on unseating vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Increasing the likelihood that Democrats flip the Senate is bad enough, but the prospect of someone as radical as Talarico representing traditionally red Texas is unthinkable. Sold by the Left as a centrist candidate, smooth talker Talarico is in favor of transgender surgeries for children, universal healthcare, and diversity, equity, and inclusion. He opposes abortion restrictions, strong borders, and tough-on-crime policies. He has claimed white people are immune to racism while being the greatest domestic terrorist threat in the country.
Worst of all, he attempts to use the Bible to justify his un-Christian worldview. He claimed that Mary gave consent to carrying baby Jesus — that’s nowhere to be found in the Bible. He claimed that God, who is called FATHER and SON, “is non-binary.” He cites Jesus’s command for individuals to care for the poor and strangers as justification for the government to have open borders and redistribute wealth.
As much as I like a lot of what Paxton stands for, I’m certain that if Democrats got to choose which candidate they could run Talarico against, they would pick the Texas attorney general 10 times out of 10. By nominating him over the safe pick in Cornyn, Republicans may have given their opponents a lifeline.
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Former NFL star Marcellus Wiley once captured this exact dynamic perfectly: “The guy who had it good, but wanted it better, made it worse.”
Texas had it good with Cornyn. He boasted a fantastic 96% voting record score from Heritage Action for the 119th Congress and would be a safe bet to beat Talarico. But Texas Republicans wanted better in Paxton. If he loses to Talarico, they’ll be a whole lot worse off.