Both U.S. and Iranian press suggest a deal is near between Tehran and Washington to end the war.
Tasnim News, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the regime is demanding the release of the country’s frozen assets as a first step. Nour News, close to the Supreme National Security Council, describes $11 billion upfront, mostly released by Qatar. It continued to describe an agreement to allow a certain number of ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz, without explicitly ruling out Iran’s tolling scheme.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is correct to write that the deal “seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Rob Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.” Now that the Iranian regime recognizes it can extract concessions by threatening freedom of navigation, it will likely do so repeatedly.
President Donald Trump’s team, meanwhile, may spin victory in the hope that gasoline prices decline. But even if the region is temporarily stabilized, Trump and his team should have no illusions: There will be a wave of Iran-sponsored assassinations in the United States. After Trump ordered the death of Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani on the Baghdad airport road in 2020, the Islamic Republic put out hits on Pompeo, national security adviser John Bolton, and Iran envoy Brian Hook.
With Operation Epic Fury killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top generals, the regime will be out for revenge. The Islamic Republic has always demonstrated patience, assassinating dozens of dissidents across Europe. In recent years, it has grown bolder, trying to kidnap dissident Iranian feminist journalist Mahsa Amini in New York.
Expect more to come. Indeed, not only will the Iranian regime target the president, but it will also likely seek to assassinate his entire family, not only his children, but also his 11 grandchildren. The same holds true for every Navy captain and commander whose details Iranian intelligence has already gleaned from the Navy’s own websites and ship Facebook accounts. Top diplomats and Pentagon brass will also be in Iranian sites.
When Harry S. Truman left the White House, he and first lady Bess took a train to Missouri, returning as ordinary people without security. The Secret Service began protecting former presidents only in 1965, shortly after President John F. Kennedy’s assassination. Still, their protection is limited to the former president and first lady, and their children until they reach 16 years old. Former Cabinet ministers and generals are on their own unless specially designated for security details. Their extended families get no help.
POPE LEO APOLOGIZES FOR CATHOLIC CHURCH’S LEGITIMIZING OF SLAVERY: ‘WOUND IN CHRISTIAN MEMORY’
In an age where journalists and human rights activists embrace moral equivalence, Iran might seek revenge for the tragic missile strike on a girls’ school with a similar attack on an American school. The regime often acts with plausible deniability. In Berlin and Buenos Aires, it used Lebanese Hezbollah. When it sought to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C., it sought to contract a Mexican drug cartel. Ironically, if Trump unfreezes Iranian assets, he may pay the contract criminals and hitmen who will target Americans.
There is only one sure way to prevent the coming bloodbath. End the regime, not fund it.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.