President Donald Trump reasserted his dominance over the Republican Party on Tuesday night, adding to his string of recent primary victories across the country.
But Republican lawmakers, including some who have been felled by Trump-endorsed primary challengers, are growing restless months before the midterm elections that will decide the fate of their congressional majorities.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) was defeated by Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein, losing by a nearly 10-point margin. Trump’s pick to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), trounced former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron by just under 30 points.
Both Kentuckians are heavy favorites to win the general election in November.
This comes on the heels of Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) finishing first in a Louisiana Senate primary that is now headed to a runoff. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, finished third and was eliminated from the race.
Indiana state GOP lawmakers who defied Trump on mid-decade congressional redistricting fared similarly poorly against their primary challengers earlier this month.
Trump made the defeat of Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in next week’s primary runoff more likely by endorsing his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump did, however, let Cornyn down more gently than Massie or Cassidy.
Emboldened by his run of primary success, on Wednesday Trump needled Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich about the voting record of her fiance, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).
“He likes voting against Trump,” the president said of Fitzpatrick. “You know what happens with that? It doesn’t work out well.” Fitzpatrick will face Democratic candidate Bob Harvie in November in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, rated likely Republican by the Cook Political Report.
But it isn’t clear Republicans on Capitol Hill will get the message, especially now that some sitting members of Congress no longer have anything to fear from Trump precisely because they have lost their primaries and won’t be on the ballot in November.
The Senate voted to advance an Iran war powers resolution on Tuesday after the vanquished Cassidy flipped to support it.
Senators groused after Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn, fearing this decision puts the chamber at risk of Democratic control. At a minimum, national Republicans believe they will have to spend millions of dollars that could be invested in races like North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire to keep a Texas Senate seat in the GOP column.
Massie responded to his primary loss by mocking Trump and musing about 2028.
Trump is still highly popular with the Republican base, even as independents turn against him and Democrats remain almost unanimously opposed. While Trump’s detractors say he is turning the party into a cult of personality, many rank-and-file Republicans do not think the GOP-controlled Congress fights hard enough or does enough to advance the president’s agenda.
These grassroots complaints have haunted Cornyn throughout his reelection campaign, leading him to back off his past support of the filibuster. Discontent with congressional inaction also became an issue in Massie’s primary, as what was long celebrated as independence and principle was instead framed as disloyalty, grandstanding, and mindless obstructionism.
But Republicans worry Trump’s low job approval ratings — he dipped below 40% for the first time this term in the RealClearPolitics polling average — and a spike in inflation since the beginning of the Iran war will cost them congressional seats this year.
The latest New York Times-Siena College poll found Democrats opening up an 11-point lead in the generic congressional ballot.
If the midterm elections go against Republicans, the party could begin to look beyond the term-limited Trump, who is constitutionally ineligible to run again in 2028.
There is no guarantee, however. There is little sign of Trump becoming a lame duck yet, as evidenced by recent primary results. Trump survived the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won 41 House seats, two impeachments, the 2020 election, Jan. 6, multiple indictments, and a New York conviction.
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Trump has now been the titular head of the Republican Party for a decade, having won its presidential nomination in three straight elections.
For now, Trump looks stronger inside the GOP than ever. He will test how long it can last.