Several months ago, we devoted a column to reviewing the electoral predicament the Republican Party found itself in. Ten weeks later, the situation has not improved. Voters are deeply dissatisfied with the U.S. economy, a political reality that has created a drag on President Donald Trump and his party.
Rejoinders and excuses abound — and some of them are factually compelling. For instance, multiple elements of the economic picture are relatively or objectively strong, and a number of key indicators are in better shape than they were under the previous administration. A crushing across-the-board tax increase was averted, no thanks to the Democrats. Speaking of whom, the inflation-fueled “affordability” crisis was inflamed by the foolish policies of the previous president and his congressional allies. Why should the authors of the mess be entrusted with cleaning it up, after so little time has passed?
But as they say, politics ain’t fair. Trump and the GOP campaigned on fixing the problems they inherited — particularly the economy — and voters gave them that chance. Trump explicitly vowed to turn things around very quickly, opting against asking the public for patience and forbearance. Roughly a year-and-a-half later, people aren’t feeling it. Problems that have indisputably been solved (e.g., the border crisis) are generally forgotten. OK, fine. Next. What have you done for me lately? Fairly or unfairly, Americans perceive the president to be unduly focused on foreign policy and matters beyond their bread-and-butter financial well-being. The temporary uncertainty and downside impacts stirred by his decision to visit accountability upon Iran’s “death to America” regime — a tough call that I strongly support as clearly in our nation’s longer-term interests — are also unpopular.
The upshot of these factors is an incumbent political party that appears to be, to use a technical term, cruisin’ for a bruisin’ if things don’t change by the fall. A fresh New York Times/Siena poll gives Democrats a commanding 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Republicans are getting hammered among unaffiliateds and have slid backward among key components of the coalition that propelled Trump to victory in 2024.
For example, within this dataset, Democrats lead among Hispanics by 30 percentage points, and among young voters by 36 points. Independents are leaning toward Team Blue by 28 points. In short, even if Republican voters turn out in strong numbers, Democratic intensity, coupled with other shifts away from the party in power, could make for a rough night in November.
A single survey can paint an inaccurate picture, whether overly rosy or dire, so looking at the aggregated data is often more useful. The RealClearPolitics “generic ballot” average isn’t quite as ugly for the GOP as the New York Times poll, but the arrows aren’t pointing in a positive direction. The opposition leads by more than 7 percentage points. For reference, in mid-May of 2018 (the midterm cycle after Trump’s first win), Democrats held a 4-point lead on this metric. They went on to achieve a blue wave in the House, though Republicans actually gained ground in the Senate. Eight years later, Democrats are positioned to win back the House (albeit with fewer truly competitive districts on the table, thanks to partisan gerrymandering on both sides), and could well ride the tailwinds of a beneficial political environment into a Senate majority, too. The latter scenario is less likely than the near-slam-dunk House outcome, but it’s certainly on the table.
For better and worse, the GOP is Trump’s party at the moment, as recently reinforced in Indiana and Louisiana. In many, many races, the partisan team’s performance is tightly linked to the president’s, which explains why the landscape looks the way it does. Our colleague Byron York succinctly reported the moment’s snapshot on that front: “For the first time this term, Trump dips below 40 percent job approval in the @RCPolitics average of polls.” He’s nearly 20 points underwater, as of this week.
IN FOCUS: COURT PACKING COMETH?
This isn’t an exercise in doom-and-gloomism; it’s a realistic analysis of where things stand. Republicans have an opportunity to mitigate the damage in the coming months, but the public’s mood is undeniably sour. The GOP should be grateful that the election isn’t being held tomorrow, but improving their standing isn’t guaranteed, either.
By contrast, if the economy improves — and voters feel their own personal economies turning for the better — that could brighten the overall picture. Quite a lot of polling shows that voters may be disillusioned with the results of Republicans’ full control of Washington, but they’re hardly falling in love with the Democrats. The opposition party remains deeply unpopular. This weakness is driven by competing factors: Average Americans view them as too extreme, while their base is angry that they’re not extreme enough. This tension could be papered over in a backlash-driven midterm cycle, but could present more lasting problems in subsequent elections.