Welcome to Friday’s edition of Washington Secrets. Which means it is time for our regular rundown of Donald Trump’s week, and whether he won it or lost it.
Roughly, Iran, Iran, Iran, Iran, China, China.
President Donald Trump left on his postponed trip to meet Xi Jinping this week, but without any resolution to the crisis in Iran (the reason for the delay in the first place).
On Sunday, he said he was rejecting Iran’s response to the latest peace proposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” (Capitalization all his.) The ceasefire was on “life support,” he told reporters a day later, raising speculation that he was about to start bombing the country again.
On Tuesday, Trump left for Beijing, but not without putting a Persian cat among the domestic pigeons. A president elected to make America more affordable again said he was not weighing the economic burden of the Iran war on everyday Americans while negotiating with Tehran. “Not even a little bit,” he said, lest there be any doubt.
On Thursday, Trump met Xi in the Great Hall of the People before each side issued completely different readouts of the meeting. The U.S. emphasized deals and opening China to American business. The Chinese one described how Xi “stressed to Trump that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations.”
The president flew back on Friday. It was a trip marked by pomp and pageantry, but with little in the way of breakthroughs on trade or on Beijing’s help to end the war in Iran. Xi kept close to his previously existing positions, such as no nukes for Iran. And even such trade deals as were announced, such as the purchase of 200 Boeing 737s, were smaller than expected.
So what did our two strategists make of it all?
Jed Babbin: Grade B+
The president did well in foreign policy this week in the summit meeting with Xi, as well as the continued trouble with Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still hovering at about 50,000, so, despite gasoline price rises, the economy is doing very well.
Two NATO allies’ ships — the British “Dragon” destroyer and the French “Charles de Gaulle” aircraft carrier — are en route to the Strait of Hormuz, presumably to help reopen it. We should welcome the help, even from our reluctant allies.
Nevertheless, the ships will complicate things enormously. We should tell the British and French governments, “Please, don’t help me.” When, not if, the Iranians attack these ships, it will bring their governments into the war, which is definitely what they do not want. (Of course, the French may surrender.)
The big meeting with China seemed to produce no surprises. China said it won’t rearm Iran during the war, which may not be true, and agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened to all ships.
But, and this is a huge “but,” Xi warned Trump to stay away from Taiwan.
It could, according to Xi’s words, cause “conflicts” among our nations. Which means war. Trump was noncommittal on Taiwan. Trump is also bragging that he made generous trade deals with China that will bring trillions of dollars to the U.S. Let’s hope it’s true.
Jed Babbin is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on X @jedbabbin.
John Zogby: Grade D (nice to see China again)
Presidents love foreign trips because foreign policy and diplomacy are in their control, allowing them to shape their legacy with little or no interference from Congress. Trump is basking in the glow of a high-profile summit with Xi. His history with China has not been positive — he is embroiled with allies and enemies, and faces an economy that could derail his leadership.
Trump began his second presidential term with the same playbook as his first: Bludgeon Beijing with tariffs and extract concessions. But in the four years between the two terms, Xi had taken pains to ensure this tactic would no longer work, with export controls on rare earth metals that are indispensable to American arms manufacturers and carmakers. Trump’s threat of retaliatory tariffs faced a hard new reality.
So the U.S. now accounts for just 10% of Chinese exports, down from almost 20% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2016. Chinese factories have reoriented towards Asia, Europe, and Latin America, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs.
But enough about China. On Monday night, the 79-year-old president went on numerous rants, ranging from unfounded accusations that former President Barack Obama tried to stage a coup in 2016, to reposting demands that former State Secretary Hillary Clinton should be shipped off to Haiti, to bizarre claims that Obama made a profit of $120 million from the Affordable Care Act.
And the news about the economy keeps getting worse. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index report showed the war with Iran is raising costs for US businesses at a rate not seen in nearly four years, increasing the likelihood that companies will pass on those higher costs to consumers.
The index, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased in April to 6% on an annual basis from 4% in March, well exceeding expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased 1.4%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s twice the pace that economists expected and the second-largest since the index began in 2010.
A 15.6% increase in gas prices accounted for 40% of the increase in prices businesses paid last month. That only looks to be getting worse, with oil prices yet to reach their peak levels and global inventories falling at a record pace, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Energy Agency.
In the 1960s, the Mamas and Papas famously sang about their most popular member, “and no one’s getting fat except Mama Cass.” As Trump travels with the CEOs of several of the companies he has invested in, he has made clear that he does not care about anyone facing tough financial decisions while he and his friends get fat.
John Zogby is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book is Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should. His podcast with son, managing partner, and pollster Jeremy Zogby, can be heard here. Follow him on X @ZogbyStrategies.
Electronic safety first
Any trip to China comes with security precautions. Particularly when the trip involves the president, his closest aides, and reporters with access to the White House and Air Force One. Burner phones were the order of the day, for example, to prevent Chinese security agencies from vacuuming up data when connecting to local networks.
When Trump made a toast at Thursday’s banquet, he sipped from a glass, which was quickly collected not by a Chinese waiter but by an American aide. No one wants the president’s fingerprints or DNA being collected from a discarded utensil.
And American aides made reporters hand in any passes or pins issued by the local hosts before they boarded Air Force One for the flight home. They were dumped in a bin, along with White House staff burner phones, to make sure nothing was carried on to the presidential jet that could have been used to collect information.
Lunchtime reading
‘It all flows from Trump’: Brendan Carr, US broadcast media watchdog: One of the most bizarre Lunches with the FT that you are likely to read. There’s a dab, a song, a joke about a tattoo. The chair of the Federal Communications Commission sounds like a fun lunch date.
How an image of Washington at prayer became a touchstone for the Right: “Washington really did cross the Delaware. But the story of his dropping to his knees in solitary prayer at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-8, at one of the bleakest moments of the American Revolution, is more legend than history.”
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, click here.