The government of Latvia, a NATO and European Union member, collapsed over the fallout of two stray Ukrainian drones crashing in its territory.
Prime Minister Evika Silina assumed office in September 2023, leading a coalition government of center-right parties. Her tenure saw Latvia fully in line with its hawkish Baltic neighbors, who have played an outsize role in adopting a more confrontational stance toward Russia. Despite her harsh stance against Russia, Silina’s downfall came from the exact opposite direction than one would expect: Ukraine.
The crisis began last week, when two Ukrainian drones, presumably intended for Russia, crossed into Latvian airspace. One hit an empty fuel storage tank, while another hit the ground harmlessly. No casualties were reported.
Despite the lack of casualties, the incident sparked an uproar, as the government’s response was considered delayed and inadequate. The drones impacted near the city of Rezekne, located nearly 40 miles from the Russian border, yet they went undetected.
Silina cast blame on Defense Minister Andris Spruds and fired him on Sunday. Justifying the decision, she said the drone incursion “demonstrated that the political leadership of the defense sector failed to fulfill its promise of safe skies over our country.”
Spruds was a member of the allied Progressives party, pushing them to withdraw from the governing coalition, stripping them of a majority, and collapsing the government.
Silina resigned on Thursday, firing departing shots at the Progressives, saying, “political envy and narrow party interests have taken precedence over responsibility.”
“I have always acted responsibly toward my coalition partners. However, my responsibility to society is even greater. I led this government because people needed stability. I held together very different political forces because my task was to ensure that the country moved forward,” she said, adding that she was “stepping down, but I am not giving up. And I am not leaving.”
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General elections were previously scheduled for October. The collapse of the government is unlikely to significantly affect Latvia’s foreign policy, as all mainstream parties are some variant of pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia.
The Latvia First party has recently surged in the polls, a right-wing populist party that has endorsed President Donald Trump’s peace proposal and adopted a more pragmatic position toward the Russia-Ukraine war. Though the party is now first in polling, it still doesn’t breach 20% of the vote, so it remains to be seen if it will be able to join the next government or be locked out by a firewall, as has happened elsewhere in Europe.