The price of gas has risen 50% since the start of the Iran war, and is up 30 cents since last week to a national average near $4.50. None of this is a shock. When you go to war with a major oil producer, and that country promptly shuts down one of the world’s most important shipping corridors, consumers the world over will feel it at the pump.
As Americans are getting antsy before the summer driving season, President Donald Trump has responded with a mixed message of defiance and optimism. He claimed, rather dubiously, that the economy is “roaring,” and that gas prices will be “going down very substantially.” The president has a habit of overselling the health of the economy, a trend that has not served him well in the past.
His claim that prices will soon drop precipitously is almost certainly due to his belief that a permanent end to the Iran war is imminent. “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
Perhaps the current round of peace talks will succeed, although reports suggest the Iranian regime could, once again, walk away from the negotiating table without putting pen to paper. Complicating matters further, we are less than 24 hours past Trump suggesting that the government would be arming Iranian protesters. Without a robust agreement that eliminates Iran’s nuclear threat, it would be hard to imagine a drastic drop in oil prices in the near term.
The president’s larger rhetorical sin is his assertion that the spike in fuel prices is a “small price to pay.” The administration has done a less-than-stellar job of selling the Iran conflict to the people. A small price to pay for what, exactly? The end of Iran’s nuclear program? A better life for the Iranian people? Security for our allies in the Middle East?
Regardless of your thoughts on the war, we are approaching “two weeks to slow the spread” territory if peace talks break down again. Regardless of the outcome of the conflict, a 50% increase in the cost of a major household expense is hardly a small price, especially for families living paycheck to paycheck.
The midterm elections are less than six months away. The party in power often struggles, and there are signs that this year could be a significant challenge for the GOP. Democrats currently hold close to a 6-point advantage in the generic congressional vote, and other races that should be fairly easy holds for Republicans are far too close for comfort.
Republican nominee for Ohio governor Vivek Ramaswamy is polling even with Democratic nominee Amy Acton. Acton is a leftist who came to fame advising Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Acton’s draconian policies did untold damage to the state, and her leftwing views on economics and abortion are out of line with most Ohioans. DeWine won reelection in 2022 by 25 points, and Trump won the state in 2024 by over 11 points.
In Texas, left-wing Democrat James Talarico currently holds polling leads over both Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton by three and five points, respectively. The Lone Star State has been a white whale for Democrats for a generation, but this close to a general election, Republicans would be fools not to be concerned.
Even if Republican candidates no longer have an unpopular war to deal with on the campaign trail, they will still have to grapple with unpopular tariffs and a president with an approval rating hovering around 40%. If gas prices (and the price of air travel) don’t come down in time for summer festivities, the Midterms could get away from the GOP in a hurry.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.