The Virginia Supreme Court’s decision striking down Democrats’ congressional redistricting referendum is fueling finger-pointing inside Democratic circles, with strategists and operatives openly questioning whether delays, mixed messaging, and a rushed rollout doomed the effort from the start.
“Unfortunately, we were caught flat-footed once again,” one Virginia-based Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “The redistricting battles on the Republican side have been going on for a while now, and our side should have been more proactive and saw this coming earlier. Since we didn’t do that, it is now costing us this midterm election.”
In a 4-3 opinion written by Justice D. Arthur Kelsey, the court found lawmakers approved the amendment too late, after more than a million early votes had already been cast in last year’s elections. The state constitution requires proposed amendments to be considered across two legislative sessions with an election in between, giving voters a chance to weigh in through their representatives.
The ruling blocked Democrats’ attempt to redraw Virginia’s congressional map ahead of the midterm elections, preserving the current court-drawn 6-5 delegation split instead of creating a map where Democrats would be favored to win 10 out of 11 seats.
Virginia Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett said Democrats lost valuable time after Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) initially distanced herself from the effort on the campaign trail last summer before later embracing it.
“When Louise Lucas first said that she wanted to do this in August, [Spanberger] immediately came out and said she did not want to do it,” Tribbett said. “Had Abigail come out and said, ‘Yes, we need to get this done. I support it completely,’ we might have done it faster.”
Even some Democrats who opposed the referendum acknowledged the party’s rollout created confusion.
Brian Cannon, a Democrat and advisory council member for the anti-gerrymandering group No Gerrymandering Virginia, argued Spanberger’s evolving position on the referendum created confusion for voters after she initially distanced herself from the proposal before later becoming one of its most visible supporters.
“What really happened is you got mixed messages from the governor,” Cannon said. “Virginia voters got a mixed message from Democrats.”
Cannon argued that the court’s decision ultimately hinged on how late lawmakers acted.
“Passing this on Oct. 31 was illegal,” Cannon said, referring to the amendment’s approval after early voting had already begun. “Had they done this on August 31, according to the court’s opinion, it would have passed muster.”
But other Democrats rejected the criticism directed at Spanberger. Virginia Democratic strategist Jared Leopold called attempts to blame the governor “ridiculous.”
“She was running for governor in August,” Leopold said. “This was a decision that happened by legislators in office at the time.”
Leopold instead framed the referendum as part of a broader national escalation over congressional maps fueled by Republican-led redistricting efforts in southern states.
“Democrats are ready to push back,” Leopold said. “We’re not going to sit there and bring a knife to a gunfight anymore.”
While Democrats disagreed over who deserved blame, Tribbett argued the ruling itself was narrowly focused on timing.
“According to this court ruling today, that was the only reason the Supreme Court struck it down,” he said. “It wasn’t the language, it wasn’t the administration of the election. It was the timing.”
Still, Tribbett cautioned Democrats against turning on each other too aggressively in the immediate aftermath of the decision.
“I don’t think today is the day to point fingers back,” he said. “Everyone can point fingers at each other.”
The failed effort had become a centerpiece of the national redistricting war. Virginians for Fair Elections raised more than $64 million backing the referendum, including nearly $40 million from a group aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Supporters also outspent opponents 10-to-1 on television ads, while former President Barack Obama appeared in statewide ads backing the measure.
Spanberger, for her part, said she was disappointed by the ruling but urged Democrats to stay focused on the midterm elections.
“I am disappointed by the Supreme Court of Virginia’s ruling,” Spanberger said in a statement. “But my focus as Governor will be on ensuring that all voters have the information necessary to make their voices heard this November in the midterm elections because in those elections we — the voters — will have the final say.”
Republicans, meanwhile, celebrated the ruling as a major victory that could help preserve the GOP’s House majority. Virginia Republican strategist Brian Kirwin said Democrats’ attempt to fast-track the referendum ultimately backfired.
“The Democrats’ 45-day early voting period destroyed their redistricting effort,” Kirwin said. “They created their own problem.”
Kirwin also criticized the amount of taxpayer money spent on the failed effort. Virginia Democrats, who control both chambers of the General Assembly, approved $5 million in state funding tied to election administration, early voting operations, and voter education efforts connected to the referendum.
“There’s taxpayers who had to pay the cost of holding that election,” Kirwin said. “Localities across the commonwealth had to hold an election, shut down schools, all for an illegal referendum.”
The decision could also reshape the battle for control of the House, Kirwin argued.
“This potentially was 10-1, and now it’s 6-5,” he said. “I do think the math is on the Republican side.”
Still, Democrats argued the ruling does not eliminate their path back to the majority.
“I think there’s no question this makes the hill to climb a little harder for Democrats,” Leopold said. “But fundamentally, Trump can rig the map, but he can’t seem to improve his approval rating.”
Leopold also argued Republicans could be overextending themselves by aggressively redrawing districts in multiple states.
“What we’re seeing in these other states is that Republicans are spreading their votes super thin,” Leopold said. “They may be vulnerable in a Democratic wave to losing some of the seats that they had counted as safe seats.”
REPUBLICANS BREATHE SIGH OF RELIEF AFTER VIRGINIA MAP OVERTURNED, POSSIBLY SAVING FOUR GOP SEATS
Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA) echoed that sentiment while blasting the court’s ruling.
“I am confident that Democrats will still be in the majority next year,” Subramanyam told the Washington Examiner. “But this decision is absolutely outrageous in the context of Republicans gerrymandering across the country with no judges blocking that, but the judges block the will of millions of Virginians. This is judicial activism at its worst.”
Hailey Bullis contributed to this report.