Arizona is gearing up for its first election with a lieutenant governor candidate on the ballot, after voters established the office a few years ago.
The state is one of only a handful across the country that does not have a lieutenant governor. But in 2022, residents approved a proposition to create the office and make the 2026 election the first time gubernatorial candidates must select a running mate.
Why does it matter?
The change means lieutenant governors will now be first in the line of succession to replace the governor, whereas in the past, Arizona’s secretary of state was first.
The development is a critical one for Arizona because, since 1988, its secretaries of state have had to succeed the governor three times and have hailed from the opposition party in two of those cases, noted Democratic strategist Adam Kinsey. In a purple state like Arizona, ensuring voters understand which candidates are in the line of succession is key to parties maintaining power.
“People will now understand what the line of succession is, and there will not be a big party change if the governor has to vacate their seat,” Kinsey, a consultant with ties to Arizona through the media firm Uplift Campaigns, told the Washington Examiner.
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“You know, when you’re voting for secretary of state, a lot of people still don’t necessarily know what the secretary of state does,” he added. “People don’t realize that the secretary of state has a chance of being governor. They don’t realize that’s the line of succession, and so this was a way to actually name your site, name your lieutenant governor, so people will know who the lieutenant governor is going to be.”
That’s key in a swing state like Arizona, where voters have, in the past, selected a member of one party for secretary of state and the opposing party for governor. In 1988, Democratic Secretary of State Rose Mofford became governor when Republican Evan Mecham was ousted on an impeachment conviction. In 2009, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer became governor after Democrat Janet Napolitano resigned to become Homeland Security secretary.
“The balance of power in Arizona has been shifting pretty dramatically,” Kinsey said. “Where we were very solidly red, now we’re very purple, and so the chance for it to change from one party to the other is pretty real.”
Jon Seaton, a Republican political strategist with deep ties to Arizona, told the Washington Examiner that the state has become more competitive in recent years, due in part to its high growth rate.
“I think people are very tied to that Western individualistic kind of ethos in Arizona — people want to be able to make their own way,” he said. “But certainly, anytime you bring in hundreds of thousands of new people into a state, some things will be different in terms of just the makeup of the population and the ideology.”
“It used to be a very red state, which I think now, over the last 10 years or so, has trended a little bit more purple, Seaton continued. “I still think it’s more center right, but it certainly is not the safe Republican seat that it once was.”
Who could be Arizona’s first lieutenant governor?
Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) is the top Democratic contender on the 2026 gubernatorial ticket, as she runs for reelection. Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and David Schweikert (R-AZ) are the leading Republicans duking it out for their party’s nomination ahead of the July 21 primary. Independent candidate Hugh Lytle is also running on the No Labels ticket.
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Gubernatorial nominees must select running mates after the primary election and at least 60 days before the Nov. 3 general election. This means final nominees must name their running mates by early September.
While Kinsey said having a running mate on the ticket could be an opportunity for someone like Hobbs or Biggs to balance the ticket, Republican strategist Stan Barnes said it could make little difference.
“The lieutenant governor nominee cuts both ways for the governor nominee, that it is a person who attracts voters and it is a person who repels voters, and so it’s probably a wash when it comes to improving the nominee’s success potential, unless it’s a belly flop, unless it’s really a bad choice, and then it just becomes a negative,” Barnes, a native Arizonan and founder of Copper State Consulting Group, told the Washington Examiner.
On the Democratic side, a number of names are being thrown around as potential lieutenant governor picks, Kinsey said, including Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, former Mesa Mayor John Giles, and former state senator Anna Tovar.
Romero is a pick that would excite the base, Kinsey said, though she would be more on the progressive wing. Gallego, though “well-liked,” has several years left to her mayoral term, so Kinsey said he doesn’t view her selection as “a real possibility.” Giles is a moderate Republican who backed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 election and could be an “interesting choice,” Kinsey said.
“[Hobbs] would probably go moderate on her lieutenant governor pick, would be my guess,” he said.
“She hasn’t really done anything to upset the Republican voters that voted for her three years ago, but this would certainly be another opportunity for her to demonstrate, ‘Look, I’m not too liberal for you, I’m not too liberal for the state,’” he said. “I think they may look at that opportunity and say, ‘Okay, let’s just get a centrist, somebody with executive experience, probably, that will maintain our coalition that we’ve built.’”
Seaton said there are “a lot of names being thrown around” in political circles and suggested that a running mate wouldn’t have a significant impact on the gubernatorial race.
“The vast, vast majority of the voters, they really are focused on the top of the ticket,” he said. “There are times when adding someone who gives you either kind of geographic balance or gender balance, or kind of ideological balance, or kind of fill a need that you might have as a candidate, that certainly can be taken into consideration. I don’t know that it moves a ton of votes, but it certainly can strengthen a ticket, depending on the project.”
Would Biggs build an electable ticket?
Political strategists told the Washington Examiner they see Biggs as the favorite to win the Republican nomination, given his establishment MAGA credentials and President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But Barnes, the native Arizonan Republican strategist, warned against bagging the race for Biggs, pointing to Schweikert’s powerful campaign style and describing him as “a guy who knows how to win tough elections.” Kinsey argued that Schweikert would hold up better against Hobbs in the general election than Biggs but that the polling isn’t reflecting such.
“I think Schweikert still is a much better matchup to capture sort of that center, center-right vote in Arizona than Biggs is, but that’s just not the way the polling works right now,” he said. “Biggs being the Trump of Arizona is not a great general election matchup, and Schleicher would certainly not run that way in the general election.”
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If Biggs clinches the GOP nomination, there are multiple legislators or former state lawmakers he could pull as a running mate, Kinsey said, though he cast doubt on whether the congressman would craft an electable ticket.
“His general election chances really hinge on him bringing home those Republicans who voted for all the Democrats over the last few cycles,” he said. “Andy Biggs is a pretty conservative guy … so chances that he would bring in somebody that was really moderate seemed to be pretty low. It just doesn’t seem like that would really fit his brand … Theoretically, he would probably pick a familiar [running mate who is] not going to raise a lot of eyebrows.”