The Congressional Black Caucus is bracing for potential fallout after a Supreme Court decision this week dealt a blow to race-based redistricting, setting the stage for a new round of the redistricting wars.
The ruling could intensify gerrymandering battles in both red and blue states, with implications for black-majority districts and Democratic representation more broadly.
According to the advocacy group Black Voters Matter, as much as 30% of the CBC — roughly 13 to 16 of its 63 members — could become vulnerable as states redraw congressional maps. Yet, members are not taking the threat lying down.
“Come for us today,” CBC Vice Chairman Troy Carter (D-LA) said at a press conference on Wednesday. “Come for you tomorrow.”
Rep. Terri Sewell (D-AL) went even further by arguing that if red states redraw congressional maps to eliminate Democratic seats, the blue states should do the same to GOP seats.
“I’d take 52 seats from California and 17 seats from Illinois, because at the end of the day, they’re rigging this election to try to win and we just can’t sit back here and do nothing,” said Sewell. “We’re going to play their game, and we’re going to beat them.”
The stand, however, is contentious and one that members of the CBC have opposed in the past. That’s because for blue states to draw GOP seats out of existence, it would likely mean diluting majority-minority seats held by members of the black caucus.
That’s exactly what happened when Virginia passed a referendum redrawing its current congressional maps, consisting of 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans, to a map favoring Democrats in 10 out of 11 seats. The advantage was achieved by diluting two majority-minority districts based in Richmond and Norfolk and linking them to more Democratic, but also white, northern Virginia.
Not everyone agrees that diluting majority-minority districts will mean fewer black members of Congress.
“In California, for example, the three seats that are represented by black people, those are not majority African American seats,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-CA). “We have proven that we can represent a district that is not majority black, so let’s not have a binary conversation about only black people can represent black seats, because when we do represent a district, the entirety of the district rises.”
“This is a larger issue about snatching democracy from the hands of voters across this country and continuing to demoralize and marginalize the black vote,” said Kamlager-Dove.
While some Democratic states may dilute minority-majority districts in an effort to pick up Democratic seats, other states, such as New York, Virginia, and California, have restrictions in place to prevent this from happening. Virginia and California were two of the Democratic states that redrew their map following the effort in Texas last year, which had the backing of President Donald Trump. To do so, however, Virginia and California had to call special elections to pass constitutional amendments allowing for the redraw.
The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that Louisiana’s second black-majority congressional district was created in violation of the Constitution. The decision was a blow to Democrats, but also did not go as far as some Republicans wanted because it did not fully gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
This ruling, however, is already motivating GOP-led states in the South to push for a redraw of their congressional map. These redraws are expected to target majority-minority districts once protected by the Voting Rights Act.
Louisiana has already suspended primaries for its six House races as it weighs a new map. Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina could follow suit. Outside of Tennessee, each of the states’ Democratic House seats is held by a member of the black caucus.
DEMOCRATS READY TO FIGHT AFTER SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN VOTING RIGHTS CASE
“The erosion of Black representation isn’t a byproduct of this Supreme Court decision — it’s the point,” a Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner. “The post-Civil Rights Movement era saw great progress, not because the forces driving voter suppression waned, but because the VRA kept them at bay.”
“By stripping away the guardrails, this decision revives a familiar playbook for Republicans: using ‘election integrity’ to justify voter suppression — and leaving the CBC and Black representation in a deliberate lose-lose,” they continued.