The threat posed by Iran should be drawing Gulf leaders closer together. Instead, the United Arab Emirates’ departure from the OPEC+ oil cartel only highlights the disunity of the Sunni Arab monarchies. Vast wealth does not guarantee regional cohesion.
The reasoning behind Abu Dhabi’s split may seem economic on the surface. The UAE wants to increase oil production beyond the outlined OPEC+ quotas. But this rupture is ultimately the byproduct of a deepening mistrust between the UAE and its longtime ally, Saudi Arabia. The two monarchies have been at odds for more than a decade concerning their respective visions for the Middle East.
The UAE is much smaller in size than Saudi Arabia. Still, it plays a much stronger global role than Saudi Arabia in fields of finance, commerce, and tourism. Abu Dhabi’s primacy has spurred Riyadh to seek diversified streams of revenue, encapsulated in de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman’s gargantuan Vision 2030 project.
Through Vision 2030, Riyadh aims to become a financial and tourism hub. This effort has seen the construction of various megaprojects and expensive entertainment initiatives. Some of these projects have veered toward the extravagant, such as the construction of Trojena, a luxurious mountain destination in the heart of the Arabian desert.
The UAE doesn’t like this. Vision 2030 directly undermines Abu Dhabi’s primacy as the dominant financial hub among the Gulf States, creating resentment and discontent between the two nations. This resentment has emerged in various forms over the years, first and foremost in Yemen.
After the outbreak of the Yemeni civil war in 2015, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia intervened side by side to quash the uprising. Over time, however, their objectives have diverged. While Riyadh has favored stability by supporting the central government, Abu Dhabi has leaned toward fragmentation to exert greater power and leverage. It has backed the Southern Transitional Council, a splinter group that aims to weaken the central government.
The UAE-Saudi clash became very public in December 2025, when the Southern Transitional Council clashed directly with Saudi-backed forces. Following Saudi air strikes, the UAE withdrew its troops from Yemen to avoid further escalation. Tensions remain high, however.
But Yemen is hardly the only theater where these two countries stand at odds. In Sudan, Libya, the Horn of Africa, and in their relations with Israel, the two hold competing views — one favoring stability, the other, Abu Dhabi, seemingly focusing on fragmentation to advance its own interests.
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The Iran war has only temporarily veiled a perception of unity over this bilateral relationship.
Of the two, Abu Dhabi has by far been the primary target of Iran’s ire, with 2,800-plus missiles and drones targeting its civilian infrastructure. But this has only spurred further resentment in the UAE, which feels that Arab leaders have not come to its aid in adequate measure.