Virginia Democrats got a big win with their gerrymandering referendum, which raises the question of whether Republicans should have avoided the mid-decade redistricting fight in the first place or fought even harder.
There was plenty of finger-pointing the day after the Virginia redistricting ballot initiative narrowly passed, with the “no” vote outrunning President Donald Trump’s 2024 showing in the commonwealth but the “yes” vote prevailing and further imperiling Republicans’ precarious hold on the House.
Should national Republicans have invested money in the redistricting fight rather than spending it elsewhere ahead of the midterm elections? Should the White House have gotten directly involved? Should former Gov. Glenn Youngkin have done more? These recriminations should be expected after a close vote, especially considering the tide turned in favor of referendum opponents relatively late in the campaign.
But the question of whether the redistricting fight itself was prudent speaks to a larger debate about the use of political power that has increasingly divided Republicans in the Trump era.
By one reading, Trump urged red state legislatures to push the Republican advantage by drawing congressional maps to help project the party’s fragile House majority and are now actually worse off as a result.
Another interpretation is that Republicans in states such as Indiana should be as ruthless in their pursuit of redistricting as their Democratic counterparts were when they successfully pushed a 10-1 blue congressional map in a purplish state where former Vice President Kamala Harris won less than 52% of the vote.
Conservatives have long championed limited government and the rule of law with neutral rules that protect everyone.
Since Trump began his long march through the conservative institutions, however, the New Right has asked whether this is a loser mentality that amounts to unilateral political disarmament.
This heterodox strain of conservatism holds that liberal Democrats reward their friends and punish their enemies under the guise of good government and the general welfare. To win, conservative Republicans need to beat them at their own game.
The Virginia redistricting fight, during which Democrats abandoned their ostensible anti-gerrymandering stance and erased most Republican congressional districts at the expense of rural voters, could be read as an example of this new strategy failing conservatives.
Or conservatives could plausibly interpret the result through the prism of a famous Ronald Reagan quote about the Soviet Union during the Cold War: “We win, they lose.”
The Trumpian argument is to achieve Reaganite ends, albeit without the Reaganite means of sunny optimism and soft libertarianism.
“The result should be a shock to the senses for Republicans nationwide that it’s time to get serious about redistricting — starting with a push in Florida next week,” writes the conservative commentator Shane Harris in a piece with a headline stating that the Virginia vote is the “GOP’s sign to play hardball.”
On redistricting, if Republicans cannot turn the tide before the midterm elections, they will get another bite at the apple after the 2030 census, which should be brutal for Democrats.
Plenty of blue states are expected to lose congressional seats and electoral votes, giving Republicans a leg up in future federal elections.
But the debate really extends far beyond congressional redistricting to how conservatives should treat recalcitrant blue states, businesses that oppose them, a hostile media, erstwhile international allies that refuse to go along with American plans abroad, trade partners, even courts that block elected Republicans’ policies.
The divide is seen in intraconservative debates over the utility of the legislative filibuster, a Senate rule effectively requiring 60 votes to pass most legislation that has long been defended by Republican institutionalists, or the power of the executive branch when firmly under GOP control. The fate of the filibuster has unexpectedly become a top issue in one of the hottest Republican primaries in the country, pitting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
Traditional conservatives argue that the old conventions and constraints benefit everyone, but especially those who share their political views and policy preferences. Trump and his allies maintain that these strictures prevent Republican politicians from doing things that conservative voters elect them to do, such as passing the SAVE America Act.
BY THE NUMBERS: HOW MANY SEATS HAS EACH PARTY GAINED IN REDISTRICTING?
This battle among conservatives and Republicans won’t be settled by the midterm elections or anytime ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
But the vote in Virginia has made the argument more tangible without conclusively resolving it in favor of any one side.