Republicans are betting that a shift back to economic messaging after weeks of war in Iran will help reset the political landscape ahead of the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump is set to travel to Arizona and Nevada next week to promote the GOP’s sweeping tax bill, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The coordinated push underscores an effort to refocus voters on domestic priorities after weeks dominated by conflict abroad, rising energy prices, and renewed Republican infighting.
White House officials are hoping the pivot will resonate as voters begin to feel the effects of the administration’s economic agenda. The administration said this week that tax refunds are running 24% higher than the average seen in the four years before Trump took office. The average refund is now at $3,521, up 11% from last year, according to the White House.
Whether that shift can break through remains an open question, particularly as economic headwinds tied to the war continue to ripple at home.
Gas prices have surged more than 30% since the United States and Israel launched their military campaign, with the national average now topping $4 per gallon, according to AAA. Mortgage rates remain elevated, and broader affordability concerns continue to weigh on voters, creating a challenging backdrop for Republicans trying to sell their economic agenda.
The contrast in Trump’s messaging has been striking. In his State of the Union address earlier this year, he pointed to falling fuel costs as a key economic win, saying prices were “below $2.30 a gallon in most states.” In the weeks since, that narrative has shifted as gas prices have surged sharply, with economists warning they could rise further if tensions with Iran persist.
Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP strategist in Arizona, said those pressures are already undercutting the political upside of Republicans’ tax cuts.
“The One Big Beautiful Bill’s impact has been devalued thanks to inflation and the steep increase in gas prices and mortgage rates,” Marson said. “All the issues that brought down Joe Biden are now threatening to bring down Trump and Republicans in the midterm.”
A string of lackluster Republican performances in recent elections has only heightened anxiety within the party, reinforcing concerns that voters focused on everyday costs are looking for a shift. Even if the war winds down, its ripple effects on gas and commodity prices are expected to linger, leaving Republicans to answer for those pressures on the campaign trail despite efforts to redirect attention to tax policy or immigration.
The pattern sharpened in Tuesday’s results. In Georgia, Democrat Shawn Harris lost his bid to replace Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene but finished just 12 points behind, a significant improvement from Trump’s 37-point margin in the district in 2024. In Wisconsin, a Democratic-aligned candidate won a state Supreme Court race by a wide margin, making inroads into areas that have traditionally leaned Republican.
Marson said those warning signs reflect a broader disconnect between Republican messaging and what voters are experiencing.
“Even if people are getting bigger tax refunds, they’re paying substantially more in gas prices,” he said. “If we don’t see gas prices come down … that’s going to be a problem.”
He also pointed to Trump’s uneven message discipline as a possible liability as Republicans try to refocus the conversation.
“Trump is not a good on-message salesman,” Marson said. “He’ll spend just as much time talking about something like the ballroom as he does on affordability.”
Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said markets are already anticipating a “rapid reduction” in energy costs as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels. The critical shipping route, responsible for moving a significant share of the world’s oil, has slowed to a fraction of its usual volume amid the war.
“There are boats going through right now, but at about 10% of the normal pace,” Hassett said Friday on Fox Business.
The White House pushed back on the notion that Trump was trying to shift the focus from Iran to domestic troubles. Spokesman Kush Desai told the Washington Examiner, “The White House has always been focused on domestic priorities, including the economy, before, during, and after Operation Epic Fury fully concludes.
“In the past month alone, President Trump signed two executive orders aimed at making housing more affordable, and TrumpRx.gov has added several new tranches of discounted prescription drugs,” Desai said. “President Trump can walk and chew gum at the same time, and the Administration has never lost sight of cementing America’s positive economic trajectory of cooling inflation, rising wages, and private sector job growth.”
Some Republicans argue that if energy prices stabilize and refunds continue to rise, Trump will have a clearer economic argument to take to voters.
Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist, said the president can “walk and chew gum” by addressing both foreign policy and economic concerns, particularly as the public begins to feel the effects of tax season.
“Tax Day is one of those moments that everybody feels,” O’Connell said. “If people are seeing bigger refunds, that helps personalize the bill.”
He added that the political fallout from the war with Iran will depend largely on whether voters see relief in their day-to-day expenses.
“The key is to get oil back down to pre-conflict levels as quickly as possible,” O’Connell said. “If people feel relief at the pump, that changes the conversation.”
Not all Republicans are convinced the strategy will be enough to reset the political environment.
A national Republican consultant based in a swing state said there is still time for Trump to recover politically, but warned that the window may narrow if economic perceptions do not improve.
“The rules that apply to other politicians don’t apply to Donald Trump, so there’s still a lot of runway,” said the consultant, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But if voters go into the booth thinking about whether he’s done a good job on the economy, then we’re in big trouble.”
The consultant added that while larger refunds could provide a temporary lift, they are unlikely to fully reshape voter perceptions.
“A fatter refund brings a smile to everyone’s face,” they said. “But it won’t solve the perception that he’s not focused on Americans’ everyday financial struggles.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are sharpening their line of attack, framing the Iran war and its economic fallout as further evidence that Republicans are out of step with voters’ priorities. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said the war is already worsening affordability pressures and accused Republicans of prioritizing military spending over everyday costs.
“Candidate Trump promised he wasn’t going to start wars. He was going to stop them,” Jeffries told reporters in New York on Friday. “President Trump has done the exact opposite. He’s gotten the country involved in this reckless war of choice, and billions of dollars are being spent to drop bombs in Iran while Republicans are unwilling to spend a dime to make life more affordable for the American people.”
Jeffries added that the rising cost of living is already straining households and argued the conflict is now driving energy costs even higher.
“Gas prices are skyrocketing here in New York City and all across America,” he said.
That dynamic could make it difficult for Republicans to fully reset the political conversation, even as the war abroad cools.
“The Iran war is taking a bite out of his popularity,” Marson said. “And if the message doesn’t match what people are feeling in their daily lives, that’s a problem.”
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TOUTS 24% INCREASE IN TAX REFUNDS
Still, with months to go before voters head to the polls, Republicans see an opening if economic conditions improve and the focus shifts back to issues where they traditionally perform better.
“People vote with their pocketbooks,” Marson said. “There’s time to turn it around. But right now, the environment is tough.”