Welcome to Friday’s edition of Washington Secrets, and our weekly rundown of the president’s week and whether he won it or lost it. Today, we also consider just why JD Vance has been charged with flying to Pakistan for ceasefire talks.
Easter Sunday brought good news. Soon after midnight, President Donald Trump was able to announce, “We got him.” A downed aviator was rescued from Iran after ejecting from an F15-E warplane, bringing to an end a desperately anxious operation.
Yet much of the week continued in a furious, unpredictable vein, beginning with an expletive-laden screed from Trump that set the tone for an extraordinary week in which he threatened what many legal experts said would amount to war crimes in Iran, before backing down, then an unexpected intervention from Melania Trump, putting the Epstein files back in the headlines, followed by an unwanted reminder of the economic turmoil unleashed by Trump’s war.
“Open the F***in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” That was the president’s message to Iran on Sunday, in which he also managed to offend Muslims and threatened the country’s infrastructure.
On Monday, he joshed with White House staff and their families at the Easter Egg Roll before hosting a 90-minute press conference to talk reporters through the rescue mission.
Tuesday was a countdown to his 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, delivered with the threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” The showdown ended when Pakistan announced it had managed to mediate a ceasefire, although disputes erupted immediately about what was in the plan.
For much of the week, the president stayed away from the cameras. Instead, he continued to pick up the phone for reporters who dialed, spewing out headlines and quotes about whatever they asked, and held closed-door meetings. Among the visitors on Wednesday was Mark Rutte, the Trump-whispering NATO secretary-general, tasked with trying to persuade an irritable president not to ditch the trans-Atlantic alliance.
Then came the twist. No one at the White House wants to reopen the Epstein saga, with all its embarrassing emails and photos. Except, it seems, the first lady. “I have never had any knowledge of Epstein’s abuse of his victims,” she told reporters on Thursday. “I was never involved in any capacity. I was not a participant.”
The result was a slew of speculation about what prompted her words. Was there a damaging story about to drop? Was she getting in her prebuttal? Curious stuff.
In contrast, Friday began in conventional fashion. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that inflation rose dramatically in March, climbing nine-tenths of a point to 3.3% on the year, driven by towering energy prices and the war in Iran.
John Zogby: Grade F
This was not just another bad week: This was a catastrophe for Trump. His rhetoric in threatening Iran was worse than hyperbole. It was insulting and even frightening.
He had no allied support and promised to blow up Iranian infrastructure. He gratuously promised to eliminate a 6,000-year-old civilization. It was a raw act of brinkmanship, but one thing history may teach us is: Don’t go eyeball-to-eyeball with the enemy unless you have real leverage.
At the time of the showdown, Mr. Trump had only a poor choice: He couldn’t do the full-scale bombing he promised, nor could he not do it. By the time Iran’s leadership proffered a ceasefire with 10 totally self-serving demands, the Trump White House responded by saying that these were a good basis for negotiations.
That set of Iranian demands and U.S. acquiescence represented for the president an act of testicular homicide. Then not only did he lose the showdown, the ceasefire is dead on arrival.
The president started a war without congressional, public, or allied approval. He refused to consult allies, then berated them for not supporting him. The president lost, and he dragged the USA down with him.
Jed Babbin: Grade D Plus
The Iran war remains at the top of the news — the DHS shutdown by Democrats should also be — and inflation ticked up a tiny bit to caterwauling from the Democrats. The Democrats continue to press resolutions to take away Trump’s war powers or impeach him, but they pretty much have nothing else to say.
Trump’s national emergency declaration enabled both TSA and ICE to man the airport security gates. Traffic through airports, which had slowed enormously, is now pretty calm.
Despite the president’s words claiming victory — this week, he said Iran was “decapitated,” which may be true — the ayatollahs’ regime is still holding on to power. The Strait of Hormuz is only passable by Iran-friendly ships that pay “tolls” of more than $1 million. About 450 ships — oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers, and a lot more — are tied up near the strait. Iran isn’t budging on reopening the strait despite the fact that it agreed to do so in the ceasefire agreement.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Iran is breaking its word. It has been doing so ever since the ayatollahs took power in 1979. Vice President JD Vance is going to Pakistan to try to settle the war. He will fail for the reason just stated. Mr. Trump said a few days ago that we might get involved in rebuilding Iran. That would be a huge mistake. Nation-building doesn’t work in Islamic countries, as we found out in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump called NATO a “paper tiger” a few days ago. Is he going to withdraw from the historic alliance? He just might try. The Democrats, and a few Republicans, will do everything in their power to stop him.
John Zogby is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book, Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, was just released. His podcast with son, managing partner, and pollster Jeremy Zogby, can be heard here. Follow him on X @ZogbyStrategies.
Jed Babbin is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on X @jedbabbin.
Vance’s high-stakes, low-risk trip
Vance flew out of Washington on Friday morning on his way to Iran talks in Islamabad. It is a high-risk, high-reward trip. You don’t need to know much about Iran, the vague ceasefire announced this week, or Pakistan’s recent turbulent history to understand that a lot can go wrong.
Perhaps even before Air Force Two touches down.
But for the anti-war strand of the “America First” movement, there is actually little risk to sending Vance, a figure who is known to be more skeptical of the conflict than other administration officials. He will join Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s other envoys, there.
“I think the only thing regrettable is that it’s not just Vance,” is how Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative, put it. “With, I suppose, all due respect to Kushner and Witkoff … they failed. How many more times do we need to negotiate with these guys? They’re obviously not able to produce a workable deal to avoid war.”
He added that there were smoke signals to suggest that Iran wanted to deal with Vance.
“You know, you shouldn’t always let your negotiating opponent or parallel pick the negotiators, but like, in this instance, if the goal is to avoid war and a war that’s clearly not going well, think there’s something to be said for it.”
READ MORE: Iran peace talks give JD Vance an opening in 2028 race
Lunchtime reading
At the impossible table: The diplomatic maze awaiting the world in Islamabad: The view from Pakistan’s top paper. “If the core currency of power in international politics is the ability to shape the behavior of others, it would seem that Iran has skewed the balance of regional power in its favor, and it knows it.”
How the internet fringe infiltrated Republican politics: Everything you could ever want to know about “groypers” and the like …
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