Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. Today, we take you inside Pakistan’s relationship with Donald Trump, and how it used a terror suspect, MAGA insiders, and flattery to position itself as a key broker with Iran. Plus, what is happening to Trump’s base?
Pakistan has not always been an easy ally of Washington. But on Tuesday, it emerged as a key broker in ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.
How it got there is partly the result of geography — Pakistan has a 560-mile land border with Iran, the world’s second-largest population of Shia Muslims, built a partnership with China, and can use its leverage over Tehran — but also the result of a year of wooing President Donald Trump.
It began in March 2025. When the president delivered his joint address to Congress, he was able to announce that the suspected mastermind behind the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul, which killed 13 Americans during the chaotic withdrawal in 2021, was in custody and en route to American soil.
“And I want to thank, especially, the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster,” said Trump.
Things have not always been so warm between Islamabad and Washington. In 2011, it emerged that Osama bin Laden, the world’s most wanted man, had been living close to the country’s version of West Point, capping years of mutual suspicion.
Trump regularly criticized Islamabad’s efforts in tackling extremism during his first administration, when its tribal areas were used as safe havens by Taliban fighters. But things began to change last year when Pakistan handed over Mohammad Sharifullah, the alleged co-conspirator in the murder of American soldiers.
“That was the most crucial of all the steps,” a senior Pakistani official told Secrets.
The next key moment came in April, when Pakistan and India launched strikes on each other in the aftermath of a terrorist attack in India-administered Kashmir. Frantic White House diplomacy led by Vice President JD Vance averted war between the two nuclear-armed powers.
But while India denied any foreign role in the push for peace, Islamabad embraced Washington. It followed up by lavishing Trump with praise, nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize, and signing deals to open its mineral reserves to the U.S.
The flattery was noticed in Washington, which spared Pakistan the worst of its trade tariffs.
It helped that Islamabad recruited important Trump allies to make its case. Two days after the attack in Kashmir, it hired Javelin Advisors, a firm set up by George Sorial, a former executive with Trump’s family business, and Keith Schiller, the president’s former bodyguard.
Islamabad also made use of Trump’s fondness for military tough guys. It sent Asim Munir, the nation’s most senior military officer, to have lunch with the president in June.
Since then, the President has delivered high praise, singling him out last October at the Gaza ceasefire signing as his “favorite field marshal.”
Nor did it hurt that Islamabad struck a deal with a crypto business linked to Trump’s family.
Yet, seasoned Pakistan watchers were waiting for something to go wrong. The country has repeatedly blown hot and cold with Washington, building goodwill, only to undo it as it balanced competing political factions and religious leaders at home. So there was almost a sense of relief on Wednesday when it emerged as the key broker.
“If you look at all the possible outcomes, they have done a great job,” said a source close to the talks.
The source said crucially that Islamabad had the trust of Iran, could deploy Chinese leverage, and that “they know how to play Trump.”
Michael Kugelman, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said it was one of Pakistan’s biggest diplomatic wins ever.
“It also defied many skeptics and naysayers that didn’t think it had the capacity to pull off such a complex, high-stakes feat,” he said.
There is a long way to go before this conflict is over. But one winner has already emerged.
Can Trump recover the youth vote?
Our friends at Zogby Strategies have been polling Trump’s approval rating among key groups. And their data are flashing warning signs for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Trump surprised many observers by doing well with younger voters in 2024. And the Zogby poll showed a net approval rating of +5 (50% approve, 45% disapprove) among Gen Z and younger millennial voters in May of last year. That has since reversed to -14 (41% approve, 55% disapprove).
Jeremy Zogby said: “As is typically the case with this cohort during the midterms, they will play a significant role by either turning out or staying home. In either case, they have moved away from the president, and may be unreachable according to the data. Meanwhile, for baby boomers, the opposite has happened.”
Older voters went from a net disapproval of -20 to -8.
Is this a case of the Trump base reverting to type, and simply skewing older as it used to do? And can he fix it by getting back on the influencer podcasts that proved so useful during the campaign? Or maybe ending the war in Iran, which younger voters oppose, is the answer.
Lunchtime reading
Democrats’ shameful mainstreaming of Hasan Piker: He’s a socialist podcaster. And the New York Times described him last year as a Ryan Gosling-meets-Tom Brady type. Joe Concha has all the stuff that profile left out.
Why the Vatican and the White House Are on the Outs: Tensions have been building for months, culminating in January, when senior U.S. defense officials summoned a top Vatican diplomat to the Pentagon for a dressing down. The Free Press reports that he was told Washington could do what it wanted, and the Church should butt out.
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