President Donald Trump’s threat of strikes against Iranian power plants would not only devastate the country but also would impact several regional players.
Destroying Iran’s power plants would disable its electrical grid for months or possibly years. But Iran also supplies several neighbors with electricity. In recent years, the main recipient of Iranian electricity has been Iraq, and as such, it stands to be one of the worst-affected countries if Iran’s power grid is destroyed.
Iraq has been heavily reliant on both electricity and gas imports from Iran, the latter of which fuels its decrepit power grid. As recently as 2023, Iranian gas made up 47% of Iraqi domestic gas consumption, generating 29% of Iraq’s electricity, according to the Netherlands’ Clingendael Institute. Altogether, Iran provided 31% of Iraq’s electricity in 2023.
Iran’s electrical supply to Iraq has fluctuated since peaking in 2012, but it has plummeted in the past two years due to domestic demand and mismanagement. U.S. sanctions and the war have drawn Iranian electric exports to Iraq to an almost complete halt since January, and in April, gas exports were fully cut off. Iraq is unlikely to find a cheap substitute anytime soon.
In early March, the Iraqi power grid suffered a brief but total collapse. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Electricity told Reuters that the shutdown was due to a technical incident caused by a sudden drop in gas supplies to a gas-fired power plant in Basra, a province that borders Iran. Its proximity indicates that the shutdown was likely due to the sudden cessation of Iranian gas exports to Iraq.
If Iran’s power grid is destroyed, it will be unable to resume gas exports to Iraq for the foreseeable future. The sudden stripping of nearly one-third of Iraq’s electricity supplies would likely cripple the country and increase the costs of living, which, along with the political instability and refugee flow from Iran, could put Iraq in a critical situation.
While Iraq has received the highest quantity of Iranian electricity, Afghanistan arguably has more to lose if Iran’s power grid is destroyed. Breshna, the Taliban’s electricity company, has reported that it can supply only 200 megawatts domestically, while total demand is around 7,000 megawatts. Abdulhaq Hamkar, the head of Breshna, traveled to Tehran in mid-February to negotiate an extension of Afghanistan’s electricity import agreement with Iran.
Given the Taliban government’s reputation around the world, it would likely be difficult for it to find an easy replacement. It would have to lean more on its direct electricity suppliers — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
Iran also supplies electricity to Pakistan, but its wide array of allies and considerable power mean it’ll probably be easier for it to find a replacement for the negligible imports. The two extended their power-sharing agreement in December, but Iran’s electricity powers only Pakistan’s bordering Balochistan region.
The one major impact on Pakistan could be the erasure of much of the Iran-Pakistan black market fuel trade — Pakistan receives around 40% of its gasoline from Iran through this channel. If Iran’s power grid is destroyed, the black market may largely go with it.
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Armenia, which has enjoyed warm relations with Iran, could also suffer if Iran’s power grid is taken out. The two have a closely integrated power grid, and if Iran’s is suddenly taken offline, outages in Armenia could result. Iran’s energy difficulties have turned it into a net importer of electricity, and the cessation of these imports from Armenia would significantly harm its much smaller economy.
The other country that could be impacted, though to a far lesser extent, is Turkmenistan. Iran receives most of its imported electricity from Armenia and Turkmenistan. Iran would be unable to import any more if its energy grid were destroyed, which would have a sizable impact on Turkmenistan’s smaller economy.