Republicans are widely expected to win a special election to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on Tuesday, but the margin of victory is being closely watched by Democrats hoping to retake the House this fall.
Trump-endorsed Clay Fuller will face Democrat Shawn Harris in a runoff to become the next representative for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. Fuller is likely to secure the safe red seat and would finish out Greene’s term until the November midterm elections.
Although the seat is expected to remain in Republican hands, Democrats will be trying to eat away at the 29-point margin Greene won by in 2024. The seat is labeled “Solid Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, but Democrats have been overperforming in nearly every special election in both 2025 and 2026 thus far, and they hope the Georgia runoff will provide fresh fodder to the idea of a blue wave forming in November. They only need to flip a few seats to win back control of the House in November.
“If it’s under 10 points, I think that that would show that momentum, enthusiasm, and, quite frankly, partisan vote-flipping is continuing to move in Democrats’ directions,” Democratic operative Jon Reinish told the Washington Examiner.
Renish went on to argue that Republicans have been “paying the price” for the war in Iran and a higher cost of living, adding he doesn’t expect Tuesday to “be any different.” Republicans caution that special elections, when turnout is relatively low, are a poor indicator of midterm races, but the party in power generally faces political headwinds between presidential election cycles.
Just last month, Florida Democrats flipped two GOP seats. Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples for a state house seat that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, and Democrat Brian Nathan also defeated GOP state Rep. Josie Tomkow for an open state Senate seat that Trump carried by 7 points in 2024. Democrats have also flipped GOP seats in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas, while Republicans are still searching for their first flip.
Fuller, a former district attorney, is aiming to replace Greene after an unsuccessful 2020 primary bid against the former congresswoman. The president suggested he would support a Georgia primary against Greene, an ally-turned-critic of Trump, before she resigned in January.
Harris is a retired Army brigadier general with a massive war chest, bringing in $6.4 million, according to election filings.
The race, first held in March, advanced into a runoff after none of the 17 competitors reached 50% of the votes. Harris came in first at 37.3% due to Republicans splitting their support among multiple GOP candidates, while Fueller trailed at 34.9%. Both candidates are also campaigning for their parties’ nominations for a full term in the next Congress and will compete again in a May 19 primary.
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Trump carried the district in 2024 with 68% of the vote, meaning Harris would have to outperform nearly every Democrat in recent elections in that area.
Greene resigned from her seat after a major public fallout with Trump over her support for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and criticism of Trump’s military intervention overseas. Fuller, meanwhile, has pitched himself as a reliable ally of the president.