One of the main outside groups for Senate Republicans is planning to spend more than $300 million across eight states in November in a bid to keep their three-seat majority intact.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely associated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), is committing $342 million in initial advertising reservations that provide a window into how Republicans are looking at the Senate map this fall.
The bulk of that commitment, $236 million, will go toward defending GOP seats in five states, including Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Alaska. Another $106 million is earmarked for three states currently represented by Democrats: Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire. The announcement represents a decision to lock down advertising early in the cycle and includes $42 million already committed in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is running for a sixth term as one of the most endangered Senate Republicans.
“Thanks to the tremendous successes of Senate Republicans and Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Leadership Fund is better positioned than ever to execute an aggressive offensive strategy to protect and expand the Republican Senate Majority,” SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham said in a statement. “SLF’s historic investment will help elect strong Republican Senators across key battleground states and ensure that Chuck Schumer and his party remain in the minority.”
Republicans can stand to lose three seats in November and still keep their majority, possibly putting the Senate out of reach for Democrats until 2028 or later. But the GOP is fighting against political headwinds common for the party in power, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has managed to recruit candidates in battleground states who are expected to be formidable.
The Senate Leadership Fund is investing $79 million, the most of any state, in Ohio to fend off a challenge from Democrat Sherrod Brown, who served in the Senate for 18 years before losing his reelection bid in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno (R-OH). This time, Brown is running against Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), the former Ohio lieutenant governor who was appointed as Vice President JD Vance’s replacement last year.
The group also plans to spend $71 million in North Carolina to defend the open seat of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is retiring at the end of his term in January. Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, hopes to succeed Tillis but faces a challenge from former Gov. Roy Cooper.
Maine comes next in terms of the size of advertising commitment for GOP-held seats, followed by $29 million in Iowa and $15 million for Alaska.
The Iowa spending, in particular, is notable given that the state has moved to the right in recent years. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) is positioned as the likely Republican nominee after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced she would step aside. Democrats, meanwhile, are headed for a primary matchup between state Sen. Zach Wahls and State Rep. Josh Turek.
In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is expected to face former Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat and one of the few in her party with recent statewide success. Peltola’s track record has energized Democrats, who see her as a strong contender in a race that otherwise favors the GOP.
In terms of Democratic-held seats, the Senate Leadership Fund is earmarking $45 million for Michigan, $44 million for Georgia, and $17 million for New Hampshire.
Republicans have basically consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, betting on him for a second time after his narrow Senate loss in the 2024 cycle. Democrats, for their part, are navigating a crowded primary. Georgia presents the opposite dynamic, with a competitive three-way GOP race to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who is broadly viewed as one of the most at-risk Democratic incumbents.
In New Hampshire, GOP establishment support has coalesced around former Sen. John E. Sununu, who faces former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) has emerged as the party’s likely standard-bearer.
One major state missing from the Senate Leadership Fund’s current spending plans is Texas, although Latcham told the New York Times that it may opt in to invest if the race is later considered competitive. Democrats have rallied behind state Rep. James Talarico, who has quickly built a strong fundraising operation. On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is locked in a contentious runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Cornyn considered the more electable of the two.
The Senate Leadership Fund has so far not announced plans to spend in Minnesota, a Democrat-represented state, while Democrats seized on its initial advertising reservations as a sign of GOP vulnerability.
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“The Senate Leadership Fund announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous,” Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said. “Their battleground map has expanded substantially into deep-red states, and we’re seeing the telltale signs of weakness with bad candidates, uninspiring messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.
“The SLF has, for once, decided to wake up and face the facts,” she said. “Democrats are seeing support that has only been ramping up since November, and as we get closer to elections, it’s clear Democrats have something Republicans are trying to buy: momentum.”