A new California poll is offering an awkward snapshot of the Democratic Party’s 2028 pecking order, with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) significantly outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris among voters in their shared home state.
Newsom leads the field with 28% support among California Democrats, well ahead of other national figures, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 14% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 11%, according to a survey released Friday by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.
Harris, despite her long-standing ties to California, a state where she started her political career and currently lives, trails in fourth place with just 9%.
The results set up a striking hypothetical: two of the state’s most prominent political exports have never faced off at the ballot box, but if Democratic voters had to choose today, Newsom would take the crown in the Golden State.
Cristina G. Mora, co-director of the poll, said Newsom’s more assertive approach toward President Donald Trump appears to connect with voters in the state.
“Though Californians may hold mixed views on his gubernatorial tenure, they overwhelmingly see him as the strongest counter to Trump and [Make America Great Again] candidates,” Mora said. “Harris’s earlier presidential defeat, compounded by persistent voter biases against women and candidates of color, may also be shaping these early numbers.”
The poll also raises fresh questions about Harris’s standing within her political base and signals how quickly the 2028 conversation may be taking shape. Neither Harris nor Newsom has come out and said they are definitely running for the Democratic nomination, but both have indicated their interest.
Though he is already considered a front-runner by many political observers, Newsom said last October he would give serious thought to running for president after this year’s midterm elections.
Since then, he’s released a book, gone on a nationwide speaking tour, and visited several battleground states.
Harris, who has yet to win a presidential primary and was defeated by Trump in 2024 under unique circumstances, has largely stayed out of the public spotlight. Instead, she’s chosen to promote her book 107 Days, which details her abbreviated presidential campaign. In an October 2025 interview with the BBC, she said she was “not done” with politics, hinting at a possible run, and reiterated the position in a podcast with Sharon McMahon, responding, “I might,” when asked if she intends to run again.
Despite the results of the latest statewide poll, Harris is still dominating in national matchups.
In the latest Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll of 1,152 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 31% said they would support Harris for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination when presented with a list of 13 leading party figures.
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Harris’s overall support has shifted little since a comparable nationwide poll last October, which featured eight Democratic contenders. However, her backing among independents has declined.
In the survey, conducted on March 2-5 among 934 Democrats and 218 Democratic-leaning independents, each group weighted to reflect national representation, Harris led with support from 32% of Democrats and 18% of independents. By comparison, the October 2025 poll showed 33% of Democrats and 27% of independents favored her.