Unsurprisingly, the Strait of Hormuz has become central to the war with Iran. Prior to the war, millions of barrels of oil would pass through this narrow waterway — which lies along the southern coast of Iran between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman — on a daily basis. But now, under the limited military threat from Iran and the significant financial threat of insurance companies that are refusing to cover transportation vessels, supply has slowed to a trickle.
Of course, some are spending their time arguing that this eventuality is somehow a complete shock to the Trump administration and the U.S. military, for which my only response is: Seriously? After all, I’m almost certain that the most effective military force in the history of humanity saw this coming. Frankly, a five-year-old playing Risk could see this coming.
No, the real problem here is not that this was somehow a surprise, but that Trump may have backed himself into a corner when it comes to the solution.
TRUMP WAIVES JONES ACT IN BID TO STANCH RISE IN OIL PRICES
This weekend, Trump declared that NATO allies face a “very bad” future if they don’t support American and Israeli efforts to reopen the strait. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump told the Financial Times, noting Europe and China’s reliance on the Gulf for oil.
Yes, it’s absolutely true that Europe and China rely on the Gulf for oil more than we do. But it’s also true that the United States and Israel acted unilaterally when they attacked Iran. Regardless of whether you support this war or not, its consequences rest squarely upon the United States of America, Israel, and Iran. That’s it. We cannot act alone and then declare that Europe and NATO are obliged to rush to our aid.
Now, would it be nice if our European and NATO allies helped maintain the security of the Strait of Hormuz? Absolutely! Indeed, it appears that some will offer some military or logistical support. But given that there is no obligation to do so, this request is essentially a massive foreign policy favor.
And in the world of favors, it helps to have friends.
This is why it matters that Trump has also spent his time in office undermining — if not destroying — the alliances between the U.S. and its friends on the world stage. Whether it’s disrespecting the British contribution to the war on terrorism, screwing with the Canadian election, or threatening to invade the Danish territory of Greenland, the U.S. has fewer friends than it used to.
TRUMP SAYS HE NO LONGER WANTS NATO ALLIES INVOLVED IN IRAN WAR
Sure, Trump delivered some policy wins as a result of his tough-love campaign. But when he wants Europe and other NATO allies to risk their people and resources to defend against the consequences of a war he started, this tough-love could come back to bite him.
Sometimes, it pays to have friends, even if that means having to be polite to the Canadians, the British, and (God forbid) the French.
Ian Haworth is a syndicated columnist. You can find his work on Substack.