It’s an iconic line from the golden era of The Simpsons, but a new academic study shows there is a lot of truth to it.
In season 3 episode 21 of The Simpsons, Krusty the Clown’s homicidal sidekick Sideshow Bob has been yet again released from prison, this time after proving to authorities he has turned a new leaf by developing a romantic relationship with Bart’s aunt Selma through the prison pen pal program.
But of course, Sideshow Bob has not changed, and he proceeds to try to murder Selma before his plot is foiled by Bart. As police take Sideshow Bob away, voiced by Kelsey Grammer, he says, “I’ll be back. You can’t keep the Democrats out of the White House forever. And when they get in, I’m back on the streets, with all my criminal buddies!”
The line is funny because it is true. Democrats are notoriously soft on crime, and a new paper by economists measures the real human cost of their soft-on-crime policies at the local level.
Using election, mortality, and prosecution data from counties between 2010 and 2019, economists from Vanderbilt University and Wellesley College found that in those counties where a Republican prosecutor won a close election (defined as less than 58% of vote share), prosecutions go up, convictions go up, prison admissions go up, and mortality rates for men ages 20 to 29 goes down by 6.6%.
The authors of the study show that this decline in mortality is primarily caused by a decrease in firearm homicides (particularly among black men) and a smaller reduction in firearm suicides and accidents by white men.
The authors reason that the cause of the reduction in homicides by black men is caused by incapacitation. For all races, ages 20 to 29 are the most violent-prone years of a man’s life, and the more of that time violent men are locked in jail, the less opportunity they have to kill other people with a firearm. So the more men between the ages of 20 and 29 with criminal convictions behind bars, and not on the streets, the fewer murders there will be.
FALLING BIRTH RATES ARE NOT GOOD FOR WOMEN
The other reductions in mortality come from reduced firearm access for young men in that same age group. Federal and state laws make it much harder to purchase a firearm legally if you have been convicted of a crime. Since Republican prosecutors prosecute more crimes and get more convictions, that means fewer 20 to 29-year-olds can legally possess firearms, which then leads to fewer firearm suicides and firearm accidents. Turns out the best way to reduce firearm deaths, from both suicide and homicide, is to enforce existing laws and then not let convicted criminals buy guns.
So, the next time you vote in a district attorney election, remember Sideshow Bob’s wisdom: A vote for the Democrat is a vote for more violent criminals in the streets.