Since President Donald Trump selected then-Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, it has been assumed that Vance would be the next man up to lead the president’s coalition into the 2028 presidential election. Following the assassination of its leader, conservative icon Charlie Kirk, the powerful right-wing organization Turning Point USA went so far as to preemptively endorse the vice president over three years out from the next general election.
The Washington Examiner’s Peter Laffin explained last week that aside from Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio should also be considered a top contender for the 2028 Republican nomination. Laffin is correct: Rubio has shone in his role as the nation’s top diplomat. The secretary has displayed a profound understanding of our foreign adversaries and has the ability to explain the game and the players to the American public.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Rubio earned the respect of European leaders while still articulating Trump’s “America First” foreign policy aims. This was a tough needle to thread, considering the president’s recent comments on acquiring Greenland and the still ongoing global trade war initiated by Washington. Mediaite reported that in a meeting among Trump and 25 top Republican donors, the donor class “almost unanimously” preferred Rubio to Vance.
Will Vance’s proximity to the Oval Office and powerful endorsements be enough to fend off the goodwill accumulated by Rubio? It is too early to tell. However, each man has an important job to do, and external factors affecting their job performance are likely to weigh heavily on the 2028 Republican primary.
As the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio’s political future depends on the success of the various military interventions initiated by the administration. The operation to take out Venezuelan communist dictator Nicolas Maduro was a definitive success. The autocrat will now face drug-related charges in the United States, and his replacement, Delcy Rodriguez, a brutal communist in her own right, is signaling that she is willing to play ball, at least for now. After two weeks of intense strikes on the Iranian regime and military by the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies, the Islamic Republic is largely leaderless, and its military capabilities have been dramatically reduced. As of now, there is little fear of the Iran war becoming the next Iraq War, but anything can happen. If, as the president has alluded to recently, Americans soon find themselves vacationing at a beachside resort in Havana with a fine cigar in hand, Rubio may be riding high into the primary season.
Vance has privately opposed these military interventions, which would immunize him to the political blowback if things go south in Iran or Cuba. On the flip side, Vance is tied to the economy and Trump’s domestic agenda. Inflation is still too high, the labor market is largely stagnant, and the White House has refused the off-ramp provided by the Supreme Court and will continue to impose widespread tariffs on constitutionally dubious grounds. If voters are feeling uneasy about the economy as the election draws near, it is far likelier that Rubio would get a pass than the vice president.
Of course, despite the fact that both Vance and Rubio are extremely ambitious, they are human beings, not robots. The presidency is the toughest job in the world, and both men have families who would have to sign off on a presidential run. Second lady Usha Vance is currently pregnant with the couple’s fourth child. It may be unlikely, but it would not be a shock if one or both of the top Trump officials decide against running in 2028 due to family considerations.
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Trump’s approval rating currently sits around 43%. If that number rises or remains static, either Rubio or Vance would be the overwhelming favorite to lead the party moving forward. If Trump’s approval rating falls, say, into the 30s, perhaps one or both would decide to sit out 2028 and run for the top job later, as they are both relatively young.
After the midterm elections, it will become clearer where public sentiment stands on both the administration’s foreign and domestic agendas. In the meantime, Rubio and Vance have more than enough work to keep them busy.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.