The war with Iran is testing the Gulf States’ long-standing strategy to maintain their delicate balance between Washington and Tehran.
For years, the Gulf States have largely maintained a strategy of “strategic ambiguity” when it comes to Iran. While these states rely heavily on the American security umbrella and share concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions, they also live next door to Iran and are exposed to risks of escalation.
This balance has often produced mixed signals when it comes to what the Gulf States claim are their policy objectives. During the nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, Saudi Arabia publicly urged diplomacy and signaled that its territory would not be used for an attack on Iran. Yet reporting later suggested a more complicated reality. According to the Washington Post, behind the scenes, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman made multiple private calls to Trump, encouraging military action against Iran.
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Similar patterns of ambiguity have appeared elsewhere in the Gulf, such as when an Emirati senior official denied conducting an attack against an Iranian desalination facility and accused Israeli officials of leaking reports. The official said the United Arab Emirates was “struggling to understand Israeli conduct and the nature of briefings coming out of Jerusalem.”
Later, the UAE foreign ministry confirmed that it did, in fact, conduct the attack and released a statement reaffirming that it was “acting against the brutal and unjustified Iranian aggression.”
This current war exposes the Gulf States’ security dilemma: Iranian ballistic missiles and drone capabilities place major Gulf cities and infrastructure within Iran’s range. On the one hand, the Gulf States seek to avoid becoming the battlefield of a regional war. On the other, they seek to limit Iran’s military power.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently apologized to neighboring Gulf States for attacking, stating that Iranian armed forces were instructed to avoid striking areas unless provoked and emphasized diplomacy. Yet hours later, the UAE said it intercepted 15 ballistic missiles and 119 drones. The UAE has received the bulk of Iran’s attacks in the region so far and says it has intercepted nearly 200 missiles and over 1,000 drones.
Iranian strikes across the Gulf States are a reminder that the military balance has not changed. While Gulf leaders may prefer diplomacy, the reality of Iran’s missile arsenal means that even limited escalation could damage critical infrastructure in the region. This creates a persistent strategic dilemma. The Gulf States still have strong incentives to ensure Iran does not become an existential threat. Yet geography ensures that some form of coexistence will always be necessary.
But the war is also reinforcing a different lesson, that reducing tension does not always eliminate threats. The balancing strategy that has shaped Gulf diplomacy for years was designed to buy time and stability. The current conflict suggests that this strategy may be reaching its limits.
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Iran’s political transition is unlikely to resolve this dilemma. With the appointment of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Gulf leaders are watching closely for signals of change. Yet the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is supporting him indicates that the situation is unlikely to change in any fundamental way.
The time has come for the Gulf states to make a clear strategic calculation. For years, their diplomacy was built on maintaining a careful balance between Washington and Tehran. The Gulf states did not seek this confrontation but understand now that it may force them to reconsider whether neutrality toward Iran is still a viable strategy for the years ahead. Or they may push for deeper security cooperation with the United States against Iran’s growing ballistic missile capabilities.
Bradley Martin is the executive director of the Near East Center for Strategic Studies. Follow him on Facebook and X @ByBradleyMartin. Dr. Liram Koblentz-Stenzler is the head of the Global Extremism and Antisemitism Desk at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University, Herzliya, and a visiting scholar at Brandeis University. Follow her on LinkedIn.