The first primary dates of the 2026 elections are underway Tuesday in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, offering an early test of party enthusiasm, ideological divides, and how global crises are shaping down-ballot contests.
Texas and North Carolina will host some of the most heated primaries of the season. GOP candidates in the Lone Star State will test their loyalty to President Donald Trump as Democrats push to flip the state. In North Carolina, new district lines drawn by Republicans pose an uphill battle for Democrats, and the Left will see how far they can push the progressive envelope.
While primary day will decide nominees in a range of congressional and state races, the results may carry broader implications for both parties as they fight for control of the House and Senate this fall.
Here’s what to watch:
The battle for the heart of Texas — in both parties
Texas is hosting some of the cycle’s earliest and most closely watched primaries, and both Republicans and Democrats are using the moment to define what their parties stand for heading into November.
The Republican primary contests across the state reflect tension between establishment conservatives and candidates aligned more closely with the party’s right flank. Messaging has centered heavily on border security, national defense, and loyalty to Trump, themes that aren’t unique to Texas.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is seeking reelection, but the longtime GOP senator and Trump ally is facing stiff competition from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Paxton and Hunt have gone after Cornyn as an old dog who can’t learn new tricks. Cornyn has made immigration reform the center of his reelection campaign, but his opponents argue that if he were going to fix the issues, he could have already done so during his 24 years in Washington.
Cornyn has fought against allegations that he is an establishment Republican as he tries to mend a tenuous relationship with his party’s voters in the Lone Star State.
According to YouGov polls, Paxton is leading Cornyn by 4 percentage points. Both Paxton and Cornyn are far ahead of Hunt. As polling stands now, it is unclear whether either Paxton or Cornyn will receive more than 50% of the vote; if not, they will advance to a runoff election on May 26.
Democrats, meanwhile, are again testing whether shifting demographics and voter frustration in urban and suburban areas can translate into meaningful gains in a state that has long eluded them at the statewide level.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are in a highly contested fight for the Democratic candidacy in the Texas Senate race.
Talarico has gone viral on social media, particularly because of the controversy surrounding his Stephen Colbert interview, which was barred from airing, but how broadly his message resonates is unclear.
Crockett is seen as a fighter and has more experience in Washington, as she is currently serving her second term in the House. She is a staunch Trump critic and has benefited from GOP candidates painting her as a new face of the Democratic Party.
While Crockett has the national recognition, Talarico leads in the polls.
Talarico sits 13 points ahead of Crockett in YouGov polling, leaving the chance of a Democratic runoff unclear.
Texas Democrats have historically expressed optimism about flipping statewide seats, only to fall short in November, and they haven’t won a statewide election in 30 years.
Overperformance is an area to watch in the Democratic primary, as high voter turnout for Talarico and Crockett may serve as an indication that they will do well in November.
Democrats set a new record for early voting turnout, beating 2020 and 2024 levels. While the turnout is record-breaking, it doesn’t diminish a large Republican base also showing up to the polls.
Iran tensions and the Austin shooting loom over Texas races
This year’s Texas primaries are unfolding against the backdrop of heightened tensions with Iran and a recent deadly shooting in Austin, injecting national security and public safety squarely into local campaigns.
On Sunday, a suspected gunman wearing a “Property of Allah” pullover on top of an Iranian flag T-shirt allegedly opened fire outside of a bar in Austin’s entertainment district. Three people, including the suspect, were pronounced dead, while 14 victims were treated for injuries.
As the tragedy shook Austin’s community, it also opened the floodgates for political debate over the “Islamification of Texas,” a movement headed by GOP politicians, including candidates Cornyn and Paxton.
At the same time, Democrats have focused on gun violence prevention and criticized what they describe as fear-based rhetoric.
Saturday’s joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, a conflict that continues, also gave Cornyn and Paxton the opportunity to drive home their Trump alignment.
Don Davis tests new political terrain in North Carolina
In North Carolina, much of the attention is on the Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District — the race to challenge incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) in a seat redrawn by Republican lawmakers last year.
The new map made the district significantly more competitive, altering its partisan makeup and expanding it into more Republican-leaning territory. Davis is running unopposed in the primary, but five GOP challengers reflect Republicans’ eye toward flipping the seat in November.
Republicans designed the redistricting plan with an eye toward flipping the seat in November, making Tuesday’s primary an early indicator of Davis’s strength under new lines, as the incumbent faces five GOP challengers.
The Republican primary candidates are Asa Buck, a county sheriff; Laurie Buckhout, an Army veteran; state Sen. Bobby Hanig; Eric Rouse, a county commissioner and small business owner; and Ashley-Nicole Russell, a family law attorney.
The GOP candidates align on nearly every issue and closely align with Trump, leaving the voters to decide more on persona than politics.
Buckhout and Buck were leading polls conducted in early February, but the partisan index shows Republicans hold a narrow lead.
Even if Davis secures renomination, the altered district ensures that the general election will be one of the most closely watched House races of 2026.
A progressive challenge in North Carolina’s 4th district
Elsewhere in North Carolina, an incumbent Democrat in the 4th Congressional District is facing a primary challenge from the Left backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam received Sanders’s endorsement. She challenged incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee in 2022 and lost.
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The race highlights the ideological divide within the Democratic Party between moderates and progressives. Sanders’s endorsement has nationalized the contest, turning what might otherwise be a low-profile primary into a test of grassroots progressive organizing, a popular theme in the Triangle.
The outcome could signal how much appetite Democratic voters have for moving further left in safe blue districts, a question that has lingered since the 2024 cycle.