The Trump administration is framing the killing of cartel leader “El Mencho” as a major victory in the war on drugs. Decades of drug enforcement tells another story.
Within hours of El Mencho’s death, affiliates set fires to banks and storefronts and blocked major highways across roughly 20 Mexican states, demonstrating continued operational reach as authorities struggled to maintain peace. This rapid adaptation within the cartel reflects a familiar dynamic. When Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán was arrested, the Sinaloa Cartel reorganized and continued trafficking. When the Milenio Cartel’s leadership was dismantled, its remnants evolved into the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Each major enforcement “success” — marked by the elimination of cartel leadership — has been followed by organizational restructuring rather than collapse, with research linking leadership disruptions to an average 80% increase in homicides in the affected municipality over the next year.
These enforcement strategies have also failed to meaningfully restrict drug availability. Despite more than $40 billion in annual federal drug control spending, illicit substances remain widely accessible across the United States. According to the 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment, drug deaths in the U.S. remain at historically high levels, driven primarily by synthetic opioids, particularly fentanyl, which continues to dominate the illicit opioid market. The report also notes sustained availability of cocaine, methamphetamine, and synthetic drugs across U.S. markets, signaling that supply chains remain active and resilient despite sustained enforcement pressure.
WHAT DOES THE KILLING OF ‘EL MENCHO’ MEAN FOR MEXICO?
These markets have also grown more dangerous: Synthetic opioids, often found as contaminants in cocaine, methamphetamine, and counterfeit pills, now account for roughly three-quarters of overdose deaths, with annual fatalities exceeding 100,000. Long-term market data show that prices have declined while purity has increased, indicating a resilient and highly adaptive supply chain.
For decades, drug policy has centered on what is often called a supply-side strategy: targeting producers, traffickers, and shipments in an effort to eliminate or restrict substances at their source. But illicit markets do not disappear simply because leaders are removed or routes are disrupted. When demand persists, supply reorganizes. This results in a predictable cycle of fragmentation, intensified violence, and adaptation within cartels.
The human consequences of this pattern receive far less attention. Lost in these enforcement updates are the people navigating volatile supply chains and unpredictable potency, the families burying loved ones after overdoses, and the communities where violence intensifies.
Eliminating cartel leadership does not reduce drug supply, stabilize communities, or prevent overdose deaths. Instead, policymakers should prioritize minimizing risk where lives are lost.
Decades of data back harm reduction interventions such as naloxone distribution, which equips bystanders to reverse opioid overdoses; syringe service programs, which provide sterile supplies to prevent HIV and hepatitis transmission; supervised consumption sites, where people can use drugs under medical supervision; and medication-assisted treatment, which stabilizes opioid dependence with evidence-based medications.
EL MENCHO FALLS, SHEINBAUM NEEDS TO ACT
Between 1996 and 2014, laypeople reversed at least 26,500 overdoses using naloxone. Supervised consumption sites in Canada have managed more than 49,000 overdoses with no on-site deaths, and a 2023 Toronto study found a 67% reduction in overdose mortality near newly opened sites. Syringe programs have reduced HIV transmission by as much as 96% in some jurisdictions. Medication-assisted treatments, such as methadone and buprenorphine, are considered “gold standard,” shown to reduce overdose risk by 56%. These tools function independently of cartel politics and they work irrespective of which group controls which smuggling pipeline.
If the goal of drug policy is public safety, success cannot be measured by arrests announced at press conferences or emergency codes lifted after days of unrest. It must be measured by whether fewer people die, whether communities experience less violence, and whether families are spared preventable loss. Killing kingpins may generate headlines, but it has not ended the drug crisis.
Layal Bou Harfouch is a policy analyst at Reason Foundation focused on interdisciplinary harm reduction across drug policy, criminal justice, housing, child welfare, and women’s health. She is also a doctoral researcher at the University of Oxford. Follow her on X @layalbouharfou.